JPMorgan raises 2026 net interest income outlook to $106.2 billion
Key Facts
JPMorgan raised its implied 2026 net interest income outlook to about $106.2 billion, including about $97.2 billion excluding Markets, according to the bank’s third-quarter earnings presentation. The figures are up from July guidance of $105.5 billion for net interest income and $96.5 billion excluding Markets. The revision came as loans and deposits grew, supporting core net interest income during the quarter. Markets activity, meanwhile, was not uniformly weaker: total revenue increased, with results diverging between equities and fixed income trading. The bank’s shares closed at $331.58 on October 23, compared with $336.54 in the previous session.
Net interest income excluding Markets was $24.7 billion in the third quarter, up 6% year over year. The bank attributed the increase to higher deposit, credit card and wholesale loan balances, while lower interest rates offset part of those factors’ impact. Average loans were $1.6 trillion, up 10% from the same period and 2% from the previous quarter. Average deposits reached $2.7 trillion, rising 8% year over year and 2% quarter over quarter. The figures show that growth in customer balances and lending were among the drivers behind the bank’s higher outlook.
At the overall results level, the bank reported net income of $15.3 billion and managed revenue of $50.9 billion in the third quarter. Total net interest income rose 13% year over year to $27.1 billion, according to the earnings presentation. Net income in the year-earlier period was $14.4 billion, or $5.07 per share, compared with $5.57 per share in the current quarter. However, earnings per share fell short of analysts’ $5.93 estimate. After the results were announced on October 13, the stock rose 0.2% in midday trading, according to the Associated Press.
Markets revenue was $10.3 billion, up 15% year over year, but the components moved in opposite directions. Equities trading revenue rose 49% to $5.0 billion, while fixed income markets revenue fell 4% to $5.4 billion. This divergence corrects the impression that the bank raised its net interest income estimate to offset a broad decline in trading activity: Markets revenue overall increased during the quarter. In investment banking, fees rose 14% year over year but fell 8% from the previous quarter. The chief financial officer said changing market conditions had slowed activity somewhat recently, although the outlook for the business remained constructive and clients continued to engage.
Jeremy Barnum said consumer spending remained strong in the third quarter and the investment banking pipeline remained healthy despite slower activity in the second half of September. Assessing the economy, Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy continued to benefit from strong corporate investment and sustained consumer spending. He also warned of a large fiscal deficit, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and geopolitical risks. On expenses and credit risk, the bank raised its 2026 adjusted expense outlook to $108.6 billion and recorded a net reserve build of $539 million in the third quarter. These items place the higher net interest income outlook in a broader picture that also includes operating costs and provisions, alongside balance growth.
For 2027, the bank outlined an initial central case projecting net interest income excluding Markets of about $107 billion. The presentation linked the growth to the effects of balance sheet expansion and higher interest rates. Barnum described the central case assumptions as highly uncertain, even under the best of circumstances. He added that the bank would refine them in the next quarter, making the figure an initial estimate subject to revision. This follows the revised 2026 guidance, while the bank’s outlook for the following year remains tied to the path of the balance sheet and interest rates.