India Futures Signal 0.2% Drop as Brent Holds at $115.29
Key Facts
Futures linked to the Indian market pointed to a weak open on Monday, October 26, after the GIFT Nifty fell 48 points, or 0.2%, to 22,560 in early trading, according to The Financial Express. The reading did not reflect a session in Indian shares; it was a signal ahead of the open. It came as Brent traded at $115.29 a barrel despite falling in early dealings. Oil had surged in the previous session, keeping energy prices elevated even as they declined on Monday morning.
Brent ended Friday, October 23, up 3.1% at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since June 2022, according to the Associated Press. The price was below $97 a barrel at the start of October before rising as supply concerns widened. In early trading on Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $101.69 a barrel. The daily decline puts Friday’s rise in context and shows oil remained near elevated levels even as some contracts fell at the start of the week.
Across Asian equities, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.3% and the Kosdaq dropped 1.2%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%, while the broader Topix rose 0.4% in early trading, according to The Financial Express. In the United States, Dow Jones futures rose 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.6% on Monday morning. The moves offered a mixed picture across markets as investors continued to monitor energy prices and geopolitical developments. The move in U.S. futures was not enough to erase the negative signal from the GIFT Nifty ahead of the Indian market open.
In the previous Friday session, foreign institutional investors bought Indian shares worth 887.65 crore rupees, while domestic institutional investors’ purchases totaled 3,235.36 crore rupees, according to NSDL data cited by The Financial Express. These flows provide context on investor activity ahead of Monday’s session, but relate to Friday and do not necessarily describe the direction of trading in the following session. Indian shares had fallen on October 23 for a fourth consecutive session, Reuters reported, as the impact of higher oil prices linked to Middle East tensions outweighed gains in technology stocks. The two benchmark indexes had lost about 2% over the three sessions through that date.
The market signal coincided with preliminary activity data showing India’s private sector continued to grow, though services and manufacturing diverged. The flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.7 in October from 55.9 in September, its highest level in four months, according to The Financial Express. The services business activity index climbed to 56.2 from 55.2, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 54.9 from 55.1. These were October flash readings published on October 23, not final results for activity during the month. HSBC’s chief economist in India said manufacturing output and new orders growth remained close to the previous month’s level, while new export orders recorded their fastest increase since June 2025.
The oil backdrop remained tied to concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. The Associated Press said the U.S.-Iran war had sharply reduced global oil supplies, pushing energy prices higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also said the average spot price of Brent reached $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, and forecast an average of $105 in the final quarter of 2026. The agency said attacks on oil facilities and tankers in the region, including Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, contributed to the price rise; the daily spot price reached $131 on September 15. The agency said the pipeline disruption drove the price to that peak.
On the political front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on October 25 that there would be no strike on Iran “today,” according to the Associated Press, while Tehran said messages to Washington were still being conveyed through intermediaries and that it had not closed the door to diplomacy. The remarks kept concerns of a return to war alive without confirming an imminent strike. The next domestic catalyst is the release of India’s September industrial production index, scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, according to the Press Information Bureau of India. The previous reading, for August, showed annual growth of 8.0%.