IEA: 330 Million Barrels Released, 100 Million to Be Made Available Faster

Key Facts

The International Energy Agency’s Governing Board on October 15 approved accelerating the release of the remaining volumes under the collective action announced in March, after about 330 million barrels had been made available by that date. The Board said about 100 million barrels remained in the planned releases and agreed to complete them in a timely manner, in line with members’ national circumstances. Specific plans include making more than 20 million barrels of diesel available as soon as possible. The decision comes as the agency describes oil markets as tight, particularly the diesel market. The Board also expects final releases to exceed the original commitment of 400 million barrels, after members released—or said they intended to release—volumes above their pledges.

The October decision completes an action unanimously agreed by the 32 member countries on March 11, when they approved making 400 million barrels from emergency reserves available to the market. On October 7, the agency said members had released about 325 million barrels and that pledged volumes not yet released would add about 100 million barrels to the market. The agency then estimated members’ emergency government oil stocks at about 1.1 billion barrels, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel, and said it was ready to make more available if needed. On October 2, G7 leaders pledged a coordinated release of 100 million barrels through the agency over four months. The pledge called for a large share of diesel to be supplied during the first 20 days, as part of efforts to accelerate the arrival of products on the market.

The focus on diesel is significant as restrictions on refined-product flows persist, despite a substantial recovery in crude flows from the Middle East, according to the agency. Its data showed global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels per day in September year on year. That followed a loss of 1.3 million barrels per day in exports from Russia and the Middle East, partly offset by increased supply from other sources. By contrast, global oil supply rose 2.5 million barrels per day month on month to 102.3 million barrels per day in September. OPEC+ supply increased 2.1 million barrels per day, led by Saudi Arabia, but the rise in crude did not prevent continued tightness in refined-product markets.

These developments coincided with a 10 million-barrel decline in observed global oil stocks in September. Onshore inventories fell by 113 million barrels, while an increase in oil in transit by sea partly offset the drop. At the end of September, global inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. The agency said prolonged supply disruptions had forced stock draws ahead of refinery maintenance season and higher winter demand. It also said gasoil supply would remain insufficient to meet demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, making it unlikely that depleted stocks would be replenished before the second half of 2027.

In its October 14 report, the agency forecast global oil demand would fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. It estimated diesel would account for 25% of the expected demand decline in that quarter. It linked the drop in demand to constrained product availability, higher fuel prices and a deterioration in economic prospects. The agency projected a partial recovery of 2 million barrels per day in 2027, but consumption would then remain 620,000 barrels per day, or 0.6%, below the 2025 level. These estimates place diesel scarcity in a market facing an expected decline in overall demand, without removing near-term supply constraints.

On prices, Brent crude rose 3.1% on October 23 to close at $116.72 a barrel, after trading below $97 at the start of the month, according to the Associated Press. In its October 14 report, the agency said dated North Sea crude had risen $26.17 a barrel month on month to an average of $116.89 in September. It said the benchmark was trading near $134 a barrel when the report was prepared. The agency’s secretariat will monitor completion of the collective action and report to G7 leaders, as requested. It will also present the Governing Board with a need assessment for additional steps based on an updated oil-market evaluation focused on diesel. The group’s leaders had requested a follow-up report before 20 days had passed since their October 2 statement, including practical recommendations for future responses, such as replenishing stocks.