U.S. Urea Prices Rise 12% Year Over Year as Nutrien Operations in Trinidad Remain Suspended
Key Facts
Nutrien said nitrogen operations at its Point Lisas facility in Trinidad will remain suspended indefinitely, following a review of its strategic options and consultations with stakeholders. The decision came as the average U.S. retail urea price recorded a 12% year-over-year increase in the first week of October 2026, according to DTN data. The company attributed its decision to continued natural gas supply constraints and the uncertainty surrounding them. It said the shutdown was the best course to strengthen free cash flow and returns on invested capital. But Nutrien said the decision does not change its 2026 nitrogen sales volume guidance, because its estimates already assumed no production from its Trinidad operations.
The company began an orderly shutdown of the facility on October 23, 2025, amid restricted port access and the lack of reliable, economical gas supplies. Nutrien said the facility's suspension did not begin with its latest announcement; operations had already been halted before the decision to keep it closed indefinitely. This reflects continued operating constraints that prompted the company to reassess the future of its Trinidad assets. It said, meanwhile, that it remains positioned to meet customer demand for nitrogen. It added that it is targeting higher production volumes from its North American assets, and its senior vice president of operations said the company is committed to “managing the transition of the Trinidad team responsibly and safely.”
The move comes amid a broader rise in the fertilizer market, with the World Bank's price index climbing more than 12% in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, marking its sixth increase in seven quarters. Prices reached their highest monthly level since 2022 in March, with the sharpest increases in urea, while other fertilizer types posted more moderate gains. The World Bank linked much of the index's jump to the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on fertilizer exports and production inputs. The Associated Press said shipping delays and higher liquefied natural gas prices, a key input, are putting pressure on nitrogen supplies, including urea. The agency cited an estimate by CRU Group that the disruption constrained about 30% of global urea trade.
Supply risks extend beyond urea to materials used to produce other types of fertilizer. The Middle East exports more than 40% of the world's sulfur, according to the Associated Press; sulfur is a key fertilizer input and a byproduct of oil and gas refining. In separate coverage, the agency said fertilizer prices have risen 40% since the war began on February 28, 2026, and that the Gulf region produces 30% of the chemical fertilizers traded globally. It cited the World Bank as saying its global fertilizer price index had risen 50%. These figures put shipping and input-flow disruptions in the context of a market that had already seen broad price increases during 2026. They also reflect differences in the indicators and periods measured: the U.S. retail price of urea, the global fertilizer index, and the region's share of trade measure different aspects of the market.
The World Bank expects its fertilizer price index to rise more than 30% in 2026, before prices ease in 2027 as exports recover and additional global supplies come to market. For urea specifically, the bank expects prices to rise about 60% year over year in 2026, with market conditions remaining tight through much of the year, before falling about 25% in 2027 as Middle Eastern exports recover and natural gas prices moderate. For the company, Nutrien said its nitrogen sales estimates for the current year had already factored in the absence of Trinidad production, and that it is focused on meeting demand and increasing production from its North American assets. The company's shares, listed under the ticker NTR, closed at $69.74 on October 23, 2026, compared with a close of $69.09 in the previous session; these prices describe the two sessions and do not, on their own, determine the impact of the shutdown announcement. Nutrien is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the market close on November 4, followed by a call to discuss results and guidance on November 5 at 10 a.m. Eastern time.