Yuan jumps to 6.6682 per dollar, strongest since June 2022
Key Facts
The onshore yuan reached 6.6682 per dollar at its session high on October 26, its strongest level since June 2022, Reuters reported. The gains came as falling oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields pressured the dollar, ahead of a busy week of major central bank meetings. The yuan was poised for an eighth consecutive session of gains if it held those gains through the close, its longest such run since May. Reuters data showed the onshore yuan had risen 4.87% since the start of the year, compared with a 4.63% gain for the offshore yuan. EL7 data showed the offshore dollar/yuan pair fell from 6.6817 on October 19 to 6.6683 on October 23, reflecting an appreciation in the Chinese currency over that period.
The People’s Bank of China set the daily midpoint at 6.7162 yuan per dollar, its strongest fixing since February 2, 2023, Reuters reported. But the rate was weaker than Reuters’ estimate of 6.6691 by 471 basis points, highlighting the gap between gains in spot trading and the level set by the central bank. The system allows the spot yuan to trade within a range of up to 2% on either side of the daily midpoint. Barclays analysts said the bank continued to resist a faster pace of currency appreciation through fixings weaker than market expectations. Reuters said this approach limits the speed of gains, while the bank’s response points to a stronger floor against disorderly declines.
The currency’s gains come as investment data present a mixed picture of capital flows into China. Foreign investment actually used fell 4.3% year on year in January–September 2026 to 548.81 billion yuan, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. In September alone, foreign investment actually used rose 2.5% from the same month a year earlier. In high-tech industries, foreign investment actually used reached 228.53 billion yuan over the nine months, up 33.8% year on year. That investment accounted for 41.6% of the total, setting sector growth against the decline in overall flows.
The gains coincided with China’s gross domestic product growing 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, accelerating from 4.3% in the second quarter, according to the Associated Press. Growth reached 4.6% in the first nine months of the year. In October, China kept its two loan prime rates unchanged for a seventeenth consecutive month, at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, Reuters reported. The agency said the unchanged rates indicate policymakers are in no rush to deliver further monetary easing after strong third-quarter growth. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and entering expansion territory, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Currency markets are focused this week on monetary policy meetings in the United States, Europe and Japan, as they coincide with factors weighing on the dollar. The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28, the European Central Bank meets on October 28 and 29, and the Bank of Japan meets on October 29 and 30. On China’s policy agenda, the fifth plenary session of the Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 26 to 29, and the government said the meeting will consider issues related to party discipline. After the week of meetings, China’s official calendar lists the release of the monthly purchasing managers’ index report on October 31 at 9:30 a.m. local time. Goldman Sachs analysts maintained their forecast for the yuan at 6.40 per dollar in 12 months, saying consensus forecasts and forward markets may underestimate its potential appreciation.