Brent Falls More Than 6% From Friday Peak as Hopes Grow for Washington-Tehran Deal

Key Facts

Brent crude fell more than 6% from Friday’s peak, trading just below $110 a barrel in an early update on October 26, according to CoinDesk. The agency linked the move to hopes for an agreement between the United States and Iran, which it said eased concerns about further escalation. Reuters also reported a decline of about 1.8% to $114.6 a barrel on October 26. These readings show that the price moved during the day, so the reading below $110 does not represent the closing price or the level for the entire session.

Hopes for de-escalation coincided with diplomatic activity in Tehran. The Associated Press said senior delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian officials on Monday in an effort to avert renewed fighting. The agency said Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iranian security officials and negotiators. The meeting aimed, according to the agency, to push for an agreement between Tehran and Washington. It added that Qatari mediators visited Tehran on Sunday in coordination with the United States as part of efforts to ease regional tensions.

The developments follow a strong week for crude, with Brent futures jumping 6.2% in the week ended October 23, recording their highest weekly close since mid-2022, according to Reuters. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia fueled energy supply concerns during the week. On Friday, October 23, Brent rose 3.1% to settle at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since June 2022, according to the Associated Press. EL7 data recorded a close of $116.72 on October 23, followed by $115.10 on October 26. Monday’s decline therefore followed a sharp weekly rise, while crude remained in a high range compared with levels in the preceding period.

Supply risks remained alongside efforts to ease tensions. Reuters said the Houthis announced on October 26 that they had targeted oil pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Riyadh airport. There was no immediate confirmation from Riyadh at the time of publication. U.S. Energy Information Administration data show the scale of the change in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz: they stood at 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21.6 million a day in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the conflict began. In its October report, the International Energy Agency said global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day month on month to 102.3 million barrels a day in September, driven by Gulf producers.

The International Energy Agency’s estimates present a mixed picture for demand and prices. The agency forecast that global oil demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels a day year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, and by 2.6 million barrels a day on an annual average basis. At the same time, it said Brent futures had risen 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel at the time the report was prepared. North Sea Dated crude rose to about $134 a barrel, up 43%, according to the report. North Sea crude also recorded a monthly increase of $26.17 to $116.89 a barrel in September, as supply disruptions coincided with faster buying by Asian refineries. These figures highlight the gap between forecasts for weaker demand and the price premium tied to tight physical supply.

In markets, losses in Brazilian stocks were linked to a domestic factor separate from the oil move. The Associated Press said the Bovespa index fell 16.1% after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected in a result that surprised investors. The agency said their concerns focused on the possibility of increased government spending and pressure on debt. In the United States, the agency reported that the Federal Reserve would announce its decision on Wednesday, with expectations widespread that it would leave the federal funds rate unchanged. That puts the central bank decision among the week’s key dates, alongside corporate results that could add fresh catalysts for markets.