Bitcoin Closes at $80,272 as Rate Bets Diverge Ahead of Fed Meeting
Key Facts
Bitcoin closed at $80,272 on October 26, according to EL7 data, as markets awaited the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 27 and 28. A reading from Investing.com’s interest rate monitor at 1:05 p.m. Eastern Time showed a 71.7% probability of a rate hike in December to a range of 4.00–4.25%. The probability of holding the current range, 3.75–4.00%, was about 19.3% in the same reading. These expectations put the monetary policy path in focus for traders as the meeting approaches, but they concern December and do not describe expectations for the October decision. The committee meeting will be followed by a news conference on October 28, according to the calendar published on the Federal Reserve’s website.
By contrast, Investing.com’s tool favored holding rates steady at the October meeting, with an 88.5% probability of no change versus 11.5% for a hike, according to an update at 1:15 p.m. Eastern Time on October 26. An earlier reading from the tool, at 10:35 a.m., put the probability of holding rates at 89.7% and the probability of a hike at 10.3%. The two readings show that pricing for the October meeting differs from bets on the December meeting, where the tool favored a hike in the final month of the year. At its September 16 decision, the Federal Reserve raised the target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75–4.00%. The central bank said at the time that inflation remained elevated and economic activity was expanding at a solid pace.
Minutes of the September meeting showed that the market director said the implied path of monetary policy in markets had risen significantly between the meetings, and that investors had favored a 25-basis-point increase at the September meeting. The Fed raised rates at that meeting, while projections released by its members in September showed a median rate forecast of 4.1% at the end of 2026. The median in the June projections was 3.8%, reflecting a change in participants’ expectations between the two releases. These projections are committee members’ estimates, not a commitment to a future decision. As for Bitcoin’s move, a senior researcher at HashKey said the decline was driven mainly by a broader correction in global risk assets, pointing to growing doubts about technology stocks tied to artificial intelligence.
Markets are watching for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to begin on October 27 and continue through October 28, when the news conference will be held. These dates set the near-term period in which markets will track signals from monetary policymakers. The December reading shows a probability of a rate hike, while the October meeting reading leans toward keeping the current range in place. EL7 data showed Bitcoin closing at $80,272 on October 26, its daily close.