Bank of America: Red Sea Container Transits Recover to 65% of Normal

Key Facts

Bank of America said container transits through the Red Sea recovered to 65% of normal levels during the two weeks before its report, published on October 26, 2026. The share rose from 50% in September as container lines continued returning to the route, according to the report cited by Investing.com. This reflects a partial resumption of shipping on one of the main maritime corridors between Asia and Europe. It does not mean traffic has returned to its pre-crisis levels; overall traffic in the Red Sea remained about 60% below levels before the attacks in late 2023, according to the Associated Press. The return of actual services remains important to tracking the recovery, as Bank of America pointed to the possibility of port congestion rising again.

The latest transit indicators are consistent with a gradual improvement in traffic through the Suez Canal, although they cover different periods. Average ship transits reached 287 a week between August 31 and September 27, compared with 281 in the previous four weeks, while the average was 252 in June, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. The Suez Canal Authority said the first half of fiscal year 2025/2026 saw a 5.8% increase in the number of transiting ships and a 16% rise in net tonnage compared with the same period a year earlier. It added that revenue rose 18.5% over the same period. In September, the authority said several shipping companies and lines had restored maritime services, and that COSCO was considering increasing voyages through the canal. MSC announced a limited resumption of transits on its Indusa service, with westbound cargo returning to the canal and eastbound cargo continuing to be routed around the Cape of Good Hope.

Companies’ return remains conditional on security risk assessments, rather than simply on improving traffic indicators. Maersk structurally returned its MECL service to the Suez Canal route in January 2026; the first westbound voyage departed Jebel Ali on January 15, while the first eastbound voyage departed North Charleston on January 10. The company tied the route’s continued use to a stable security situation and no escalation of the conflict. By contrast, the U.S. Maritime Administration warned of renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and reported that the tankers AMZAN and DAISY were hit by missiles off Yanbu on August 24, 2026. The International Monetary Fund had said Red Sea disruptions cut Suez Canal receipts by 6 billion dollars in 2024 compared with 2023, and revenue remained lower in the first five months of 2025. These developments show the impact of disruption to the corridor on ship traffic and canal revenue, alongside efforts to restore services.

At ports, global congestion fell to 10% of the fleet from a peak of between 11% and 12%, driven by a decline in North Asia, according to Bank of America. The report warned, however, that congestion could rise again because of disruptions from Typhoon Champi and a gathering of ships returning to the Red Sea route. It said container rates on long-haul routes "appear to have peaked," while Europe and Pacific offers remained near Shanghai Containerized Freight Index levels. It attributed the persistence of these offers to strong demand outside the peak season and congestion remaining elevated. The return of some containers to the Red Sea, by itself, therefore does not indicate lower transport costs or easing supply pressures. Container rates and port congestion levels remain separate indicators from the transit share recorded in the report.

In oil shipping, Bank of America said spot rates for oil tankers had fallen from their recent peaks but remained elevated. Actual rates for very large crude carriers reached 650 thousand dollars a day on the Oman-to-China route and 450 thousand dollars a day on the U.S.-to-China route. Forward curves point to the possibility that average rates will remain near 200 thousand dollars a day in 2027, according to the report. Dry-bulk rates, meanwhile, were up 31% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026. In the Panama Canal, dry-bulk vessel transits fell 30% annually despite improving water levels. These figures show a divergence between the recovery in container transits and other shipping indicators remaining elevated or below their usual levels.

Demand for car carriers grew 9.4% year over year in September 2026, while demand in the first nine months of the year was 10.4% higher year over year, according to Bank of America. On U.S. data, the U.S. Census Bureau set October 28, 2026, as the release date for its September report on advance economic indicators, which includes international trade in goods data. The advance trade-in-goods deficit stood at 132.6 billion dollars in August, up 13.7 billion dollars from July, when it was 118.9 billion dollars. The announced release date does not include a forecast for the October deficit; the information provided is limited to the previous reading and the release schedule. The forthcoming report comes as maritime transport indicators diverge, with container transits improving while some freight rates remain elevated.