330 Million Barrels Made Available, Release of Remaining 100 Million Accelerated
Key Facts
The International Energy Agency’s Governing Board said on October 15 that about 330 million barrels of emergency stocks had been made available by that date, with about 100 million barrels still remaining from the collective action announced in March. The board approved the necessary steps to complete the remaining releases and accelerate their availability, as it described oil markets as still tight, particularly the diesel market. Existing plans include making more than 20 million barrels of diesel available “as soon as possible.” The agency said the total stocks scheduled for release would exceed the original pledge of 400 million barrels, after some members released more than their commitments and others announced their intention to do so. The decision puts diesel supplies at the forefront of the response, as pressure on oil products continues despite improved crude flows.
The October decision completes an action unanimously approved by the 32 member countries on March 11 to make 400 million barrels of emergency reserves available to the market. The agency said on October 7 that about 325 million barrels had been made available, and that releasing the pledged volumes that had not yet reached the market would add about 100 million barrels. At that meeting, it estimated member governments’ emergency oil stocks at about 1.1 billion barrels, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. On October 2, the agency said the volumes made available had exceeded 80% of the March pledge, while G7 leaders announced a plan to make 100 million barrels of oil and products available over the following weeks, starting with large volumes of diesel. The agency’s executive director called on October 11 for members that had not completed their commitments to accelerate the remaining releases and prioritize diesel, and urged other members to assess the need for additional supplies of it.
The supply gap between crude and refined products explains the focus on diesel in the new plans. The agency said on October 2 that crude exports from the Middle East had recovered significantly, while flows of refined products remained severely constrained, and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries had added to pressure on diesel. In September, Middle Eastern refined-product exports rose by 210 thousand barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, while liquefied petroleum gas exports increased by 90 thousand to 670 thousand barrels per day. Still, levels remained well below the pre-war 4.7 million barrels per day for refined products and 1.5 million barrels per day for liquefied petroleum gas. Global diesel and gasoil availability fell year on year by 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter, due to disrupted exports from the Middle East and Russia and lower supplies from some Asian countries.
The pressure also extended to stocks, with observed global oil inventories falling by 10 million barrels in September. Onshore stocks declined by 113 million barrels, while oil in transit by sea increased by 103 million barrels; the increase at sea did not offset the decline in onshore stocks. By the end of September, global inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February, a decline of 2.4 million barrels per day. Global diesel exports fell by 700 thousand barrels per day year on year in September, after Russia and the Middle East lost 1.3 million barrels per day of exports, and increases from other sources were not enough to make up the shortfall. The combination of falling inventories and reduced diesel and gasoil availability means the new releases are coming into a market facing direct pressure on refined products.
In its demand outlook, the agency projected that global oil consumption would fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, declining by 2.5 million barrels per day year on year in the fourth quarter. It estimated that diesel would account for 25% of the projected decline in that quarter. It forecast a partial recovery in demand of 2 million barrels per day in 2027, but consumption would remain about 620 thousand barrels per day, or 0.6%, below the 2025 level. On the supply side, the agency projected an average annual decline of 5.8 million barrels per day to 100.7 million barrels per day in 2026, before supplies rose by 7.7 million barrels per day in 2027. These estimates place completion of the releases in the context of a market where demand expectations are falling this year, while supply remains short and inventories are declining.
Brent crude closed at $116.72 a barrel on October 23. The International Energy Agency’s Secretariat continues to monitor progress toward completing the collective action and report to G7 leaders as requested. It will also present the board with an updated assessment of the oil market focused on diesel, for members to consider whether further steps are needed. This follows the group’s leaders’ request to monitor implementation of the releases, while the agency focuses on the market its board described as tight. Any subsequent action will depend on the updated assessment the Secretariat presents to the Governing Board.