Russian Diesel Output Set to Reach 180,000 Tonnes a Day as Exports Resume
Key Facts
Russian refinery diesel output is heading toward 180,000 tonnes a day after beginning to rise when new export quotas reached companies in mid-October, according to two industry sources cited by Reuters. Ship-tracking data on October 23 showed a Malta-flagged tanker carrying 40,000 tonnes of Russian diesel bound for New York, Reuters reported. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said shipments to the United States would continue regularly after the first tanker departed. The Associated Press estimated that its expected arrival on November 7 would mark the first delivery of Russian diesel to the United States since July 2023. The shipments are resuming as Russia seeks to boost output and manage exports amid a seasonal decline in domestic consumption.
Russian diesel output fell in the first half of October to about 160,000 tonnes a day, from 175,000 tonnes a day in September, before beginning to climb toward 180,000 tonnes a day after quotas arrived in mid-month, according to the two sources cited by Reuters. The sources said domestic consumption typically falls in October to about 140,000 tonnes a day as the grain harvest and summer driving season end. In their estimate, that could leave at least 40,000 tonnes a day, or more than 1 million tonnes a month, available for export. But neighboring countries may need between 200,000 and 300,000 tonnes of that volume. This means the estimated surplus is not the same as the volume bound for the United States, and does not determine the destination of each shipment.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the first three Russian fuel tankers were heading to the Atlantic coast and that companies could supply 500,000 metric tonnes during October. This volume differs from the industrial sources’ estimate of the exportable surplus and does not mean all of it will reach the United States. In remarks reported by Reuters, Novak said Russia could raise diesel exports to their usual levels, between 3 million and 3.5 million tonnes a month, by year-end. Two sources told Reuters they expected the government to keep the export ban in place and use quotas to regulate exports. They added that authorities would monitor the domestic market and changes in output as they manage the quotas.
The United States is meanwhile allowing transactions involving Russian diesel under General License 135, issued by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control on October 9. The license covers the sale, delivery, unloading and import of Russian diesel, including imports into the United States, through April 7, 2027. It allows these transactions during the authorization period and does not limit them to shipments that were loaded onto tankers by October 9. Russia had allowed exemptions to its export ban from October 1 to issue quotas, while the new quotas reached companies in mid-month, Reuters reported. The U.S. authorization window thus coincides with Russia regulating exports through quotas, while the Russian government remains, according to Reuters sources, the authority deciding how to control volumes.
The first tanker’s cargo remains small compared with the U.S. fuel market: Novak said it amounts to 40,000 tonnes, or about 300,000 barrels, equivalent to roughly 7% of U.S. daily diesel consumption of about 4 million barrels. Energy policy experts told the Associated Press that the agreement is unlikely to materially lower the high fuel prices at the pump or in other markets. Russia imposed its first diesel export ban on July 8, 2026, after previously exporting about half of its diesel and gasoil output, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency also said repeated Ukrainian strikes targeted refineries and diesel production fell by about 30%, while fuel shortages caused by the attacks eased. The agency estimated that repairs to badly damaged secondary refining units take six to eight months on average, and that the Moscow refinery, with capacity of 250,000 barrels a day, could remain out of service until early 2027.