5 Central Bank Meetings, Inflation and Growth Data to Test Global Markets This Week

Key Facts

Markets enter a packed week of meetings by five central banks and U.S. and British data, as energy-related price pressures intensify. The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28, while the European Central Bank meets on October 28 and 29, and the Bank of Japan meets on October 29 and 30. Economists surveyed by The Associated Press expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in October, while continuing to expect another increase in December. Attention is focused on the initial estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditures data, both scheduled for release on October 29. These dates put monetary policy decisions and growth and inflation data in a narrow window, while rising oil and energy costs weigh on businesses.

The Fed will release its decision statement after the committee meeting on October 28, followed by a press conference the same day. The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its decision on October 29 at 14:15 Central European Time, with its press conference at 14:45. The Bank of Canada will announce its overnight interest rate decision and quarterly Monetary Policy Report on October 28, followed by a press conference with the governor and deputy governor at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The bank held its target interest rate at 2.25% on September 2 and said inflation had been running near 3% in recent months, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices. The Bank of Japan meets on October 29 and 30 and will publish its economic and price outlook report on the final day. The sequence of decisions gives investors signals from major economies before the end of the week.

The expected U.S. data paint a picture of strong activity alongside forecasts for slower growth and higher inflation. Real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the second quarter, after 2.5% in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by The Associated Press expect third-quarter growth of 1.7% from July to September; the estimate due on October 29 will be the first of three estimates for the period and may be revised later. At the same time, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, the personal income and spending report for September will be released. Economists expect inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index to rise to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, while the Fed aims to bring inflation down to 2%.

Ahead of the data releases, the S&P Global U.S. composite preliminary output index fell to 57.6 in October from 58.4 in September, but remained consistent with annualized growth of 5.0%. At the same time, selling prices tracked by the surveys rose at their fastest pace since August 2022. Businesses said inputs including oil, energy, fuel and shipping had pushed up costs, amid broader pressure on goods and services prices. The Associated Press linked higher energy prices to the war with Iran, which cut global oil supplies and raised energy costs. The indicators put policymakers in front of activity that remains strong, alongside price pressures fueled by input costs.

Britain adds the budget and public finances to Wednesday’s agenda, with the government confirming that the 2026 budget will be presented on October 28, alongside updated fiscal forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Public sector borrowing reached 24.5 billion pounds in September, up 1.8 billion pounds from the same month in 2025 and exceeding the office’s 22.6 billion forecast by 1.9 billion. On prices, Britain’s consumer price index rose 3.5% in the 12 months through September, up from 3.1% in August. Transport prices, particularly motor fuel, were the largest upward contributor to the annual change. The figures provide fiscal and inflationary context for the upcoming British budget.

In markets, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Friday, October 23, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%. In the oil market, Brent crude rose 3.1% on Friday to $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since June 2022; The Associated Press said its price had been below $97 since the start of October. The agency linked the energy rally to shrinking global supplies resulting from the war with Iran. Alongside central bank meetings, investors are watching results from major U.S. companies, including Alphabet on Wednesday and Intel and Amazon on Thursday, as well as UPS and Coca-Cola on Tuesday, Starbucks on Thursday, and Exxon Mobil and Chevron on Friday. After the week of data and decisions, the U.S. consumer price index for October will be released on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.