Dollar Rises Against Major Currencies as Chicago Index Posts 0.07 Ahead of Busy Week

Key Facts

The dollar rose against all major currencies in the morning snapshot on Monday, October 26, posting its biggest gains against the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar, according to InvestingLive. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.30% against the U.S. currency, while the dollar rose 0.31% against the yen in the same snapshot. The move came as markets entered a week combining an expected Fed decision, a wave of corporate results and U.S. economic data. InvestingLive said the agenda would test investors’ expectations for interest rates, growth and returns on massive investments in artificial intelligence. Elsewhere, U.S. stock futures pointed to modest gains, while crude oil fell about 2% in the morning.

On the data front, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at 0.07 on October 26, above expectations of -0.1 and compared with a previous reading of -0.04. The reading stands out at the start of a busy week, but remains one monthly indicator among a broader set of data investors are awaiting. In the background, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026, following growth of 2.5% in the first quarter, according to the revised estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis attributed second-quarter growth to increases in consumer spending, investment and exports, partly offset by a decline in government spending. Nonfarm payrolls also rose by 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate was 4.2% and changed little.

The run of economic releases begins with September durable goods orders on October 27 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau calendar. New home sales data for September are scheduled for the same day at 10:00 a.m. The open source did not establish a consensus estimate for durable goods orders, so the report includes no forecast figure for them. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on October 27 and 28. The policy decision is due on October 28 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, followed by a news conference at 2:30, according to the schedule reported by InvestingLive.

At its September meeting, the Fed raised its target interest rate range by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4%, saying economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and inflation remained elevated. EL7 data show an actual rate reading of 4% on September 16, following 3.75% on July 29. There are no documented expectations for the October meeting decision in the available evidence, leaving the committee meeting and its expected decision in focus for markets without a firm call on the rate path. Attention then shifts after the decision to Thursday’s data, which will provide a more recent reading on growth, inflation and spending. These data matter for how markets recalibrate expectations after the meeting, in a week InvestingLive said would test estimates for interest rates, growth and returns on AI investments.

The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP is due on October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, alongside personal income and spending, the personal consumption expenditures price index and weekly jobless claims. The calendar provided includes no forecasts for GDP growth or core inflation. While second-quarter data provide a basis for comparison, GDP growth slowed to 2.2% in that quarter from 2.5% in the first, according to the revised estimate. The new figures follow a 29,000 increase in payrolls in September and an unemployment rate that held at 4.2%. The week’s focus is therefore on the decision first, followed by what Thursday’s data show about the path of activity and prices.

Geopolitical risks remain in view alongside the economic agenda; InvestingLive said diplomatic efforts involving Iran offer some optimism. But it added that the risk of renewed fighting and Israel’s elections scheduled for Tuesday keep risks in place. In energy markets, crude oil fell about 2% in the morning snapshot, though the evidence does not establish that these factors explain the dollar’s move. The U.S. currency’s move was broad across major currencies in the snapshot, with its biggest gains against the yen and New Zealand dollar and its smallest against the euro and Canadian dollar. The next milestones are set by the Fed meeting and decision on October 28, followed by GDP, income, spending and inflation data on October 29.