EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•24 October 2026•
2 min read

U.S. Natural Gas Contract Falls 15% in a Week as Warmer Weather Is Forecast

Key Facts

1The U.S. November natural gas contract fell 15% in the week ended October 23, 2026.
2The November contract closed at $2.64 per million British thermal units on Friday, after falling 6%.
3U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 3,644 billion cubic feet on October 16, up 77 billion week over week.
4Inventories exceeded the five-year average by 35 billion cubic feet, but remained 152 billion below their year-earlier level.

The U.S. November natural gas contract fell 15% in the week ended October 23, 2026, under pressure from forecasts for warmer-than-usual weather that could limit heating demand. The close put the daily move below the previous close, while the weekly decline extended to about 15%. A report cited by Yahoo Finance from Barchart attributed the weekly drop to forecasts for above-average temperatures in the United States during the fall. The report said the forecasts “could limit demand for natural gas for heating.”

The daily closing price for the NGUSD natural gas symbol fell from 3.039 on October 19 to 2.64 on October 23, according to EL7 data. The comparison between the two closes shows a decline over the five trading days separating those dates. The October 23 close coincided with a drop in the November contract, which posted a weekly decline of 15%. Near-term concerns center on the effect of weather on expected demand as the heating season approaches. In this context, temperature forecasts put the demand outlook over the coming weeks at the forefront of factors affecting the contract.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data show working gas in storage stood at 3,644 billion cubic feet on October 16. Stocks rose by 77 billion cubic feet from the previous week, according to the agency’s estimates. They also exceeded the five-year average of 3,609 billion cubic feet by 35 billion. But inventories remained 152 billion cubic feet below their year-earlier level. This puts stocks above their five-year historical average while leaving them below the level for the same period last year.

The National Weather Prediction Center’s forecast, issued October 24, covers the period from October 31 to November 6. It indicated above-normal temperatures in parts of the western United States. The forecast period extends into the first days of November, a window in which the market is tracking weather’s effect on heating demand. This follows a week of steep losses for the November contract, while the prospect of continued warmth reinforces the focus on near-term demand. The Energy Information Administration will release its next weekly storage report on October 29, 2026.