UAE Oil Supply Jumps 400,000 Barrels a Day to 5.3 Million in September
Key Facts
The UAE raised its total oil supply, including condensates, by 400,000 barrels a day in September to a record 5.3 million barrels a day, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency cited by Bloomberg. The increase came as Gulf supply recovery accelerated after severe disruptions in previous months. The agency said Abu Dhabi increased total production "by 400,000 barrels a day to 5.3 million barrels a day." The figure includes condensates, so it does not represent crude output alone. Agency data show UAE crude production exceeded 4.4 million barrels a day in the same month, approaching maximum production capacity.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration had estimated that UAE crude and condensate production fell from 4.0 million barrels a day at the start of 2026 to an average of 2.4 million between March and May. It linked the decline to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the war, rather than infrastructure damage alone. These figures put September's jump in the context of a rapid recovery from the low production levels seen in the spring. The UAE also left OPEC effective May 1, 2026, according to the U.S. agency. Crude output topping 4.4 million barrels a day comes after that shift in its status within the organization, while the record supply figure still includes condensates.
The recovery extended to the global market, with global oil supply rising 2.5 million barrels a day month on month to 102.3 million barrels a day in September, driven by Gulf producers, the International Energy Agency said. Crude exports from Gulf producers jumped 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million, exceeding 75% of pre-war levels. The agency said Saudi Arabia led the increase in exports. The strong rebound lifted its estimate for third-quarter supply by 190,000 barrels a day compared with the previous month's report. The agency expects global supply to average 101.4 million barrels a day in the second half of 2026, up from 96.4 million in the second quarter.
But the increase in production did not prevent observed UAE above-ground inventories from falling to their lowest level on record. The International Energy Agency estimated that the drawdown exceeded 270,000 barrels a day in September, a record pace. Globally, observed inventories fell by 10 million barrels in the same month, after onshore stocks declined by 113 million barrels, largely offset by an increase in oil at sea. At the end of September, global inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. These figures indicate that the restoration of supply flows coincided with continued inventory drawdowns, both locally and globally.
Prices rose alongside the recovery in supply, amid shipping disruptions and escalating regional tensions. The International Energy Agency said Brent futures had climbed 13% since the start of September to about $107 a barrel, while North Sea Dated rose 43% to $134. In September alone, North Sea Dated gained $26.17 a barrel month on month, averaging $116.89. The agency attributed the increase to renewed fighting in the Middle East and the resulting supply disruptions, alongside faster buying by Asian refiners. It added that shipping costs rose after the Saudi East-West pipeline was bombed on September 11.
The International Energy Agency warned that escalating attacks on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic threaten to erase more of the recovery gains. It left its forecasts for the rest of the year largely unchanged because of security concerns and increased Houthi attacks in the region during October. The agency said the "recent escalation in attacks on regional energy infrastructure and tanker traffic threatens to disrupt further gains." Gulf oil flows therefore remain dependent on volatile security conditions, even as production and exports rose in September. Available sources did not confirm claims in the previous draft about Fujairah shipment volumes or the Ruwais refinery returning to full capacity; ADNOC's page says the refinery has capacity of about 930,000 barrels a day.