Nigerian Petrol Rises 48.1% as Diesel Leads Global Increases in Energy Shock
Key Facts
Petrol prices in Nigeria rose 48.1% during the period covered by the Trade and Development Report 2026, recording the fourth-largest increase among the countries and regions covered, according to Leadership, which cited the report’s data. By contrast, Nigeria led the global increase in diesel prices in the comparison cited in the article, although no verified figure for that increase is available here among the established facts. The two increases reflect the energy shock’s pass-through to the domestic fuel market, with diesel prices exceeding 2,000 naira per litre in September, according to reporting cited by Reuters. In Lagos and Abuja, petrol rose to about 1,400 naira per litre in September from around 1,200 naira the previous month. Some stations in northern Nigeria recorded a price of 1,500 naira per litre, Reuters reported.
In the petrol comparison, Myanmar ranked first with an increase of 50.7%, followed by the UAE at 49.8% and Malaysia at 48.4%, ahead of Nigeria at 48.1%, according to figures reported by Leadership. For diesel, Lebanon ranked second with an increase of 73.6%, followed by Peru at 66.7% and Guatemala at 66.3%. The ranking puts Nigeria among the countries that saw a sharp rise in fuel costs, while the comparison shows that petrol prices also rose broadly across different markets. UNCTAD’s report said the energy shock was linked to infrastructure damage and disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. It described the impact of the disruptions as “the largest monthly loss on record in global energy supplies.”
Reuters added that fuel price increases in Nigeria continued despite the Dangote refinery operating at its full capacity of 700,000 barrels per day. The agency said this highlights the limits of domestic refining capacity in shielding consumers from international oil market shocks. September prices showed that petrol and diesel remained costly in the domestic market, with diesel exceeding 2,000 naira per litre. The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics’ diesel price survey is based on prices actually paid by consumers at outlets across 774 local government areas in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. This scope enables prices to be measured across the country’s regions, according to the bureau’s description of its data collection methodology.
Globally, UNCTAD said Brent crude rose from about $70 a barrel to more than $110 after the conflict broke out. The report forecast prices would remain more than $30 a barrel above pre-conflict levels through the end of 2026. In an earlier economic update, UNCTAD said the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in early March pushed oil prices up by more than 60%, while gas prices more than doubled. The report also forecast global economic growth would slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.9% the previous year, despite trade in goods and services growing by about 4% in real terms. UNCTAD released its Trade and Development Report 2026 on October 9.
UNCTAD said developing economies reliant on imports and poorer households were particularly affected by rising energy costs, which reduce household real incomes and constrain consumption. In its trade outlook, the May update pointed to the possibility that real global merchandise trade growth would fall from 4.7% in 2025 to a range of 1.5% to 2.5% in 2026. UNCTAD said diversifying domestic renewable energy sources could reduce reliance on imported fuel. It also said addressing energy and supply constraints is more effective in tackling supply-driven inflation than broad monetary and fiscal tightening. Its oil price forecasts extend through the end of 2026.