Qalibaf Calls for 10% Cut in Gas Use as Shortfall Forecast to Reach 250 Million Cubic Meters a Day
Key Facts
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf called on Oct. 25 for a nationwide campaign to cut gas consumption by at least 10% as winter approaches, as the government expects a daily shortfall of between 100 million and 250 million cubic meters during the cold season. Agence France-Presse, citing state news agency IRNA, reported that the shortfall estimate came from First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, who attributed it to war damage. Qalibaf said in a video broadcast by Iranian media that “a national effort is necessary to get through the coming winter.” The call aims to curb demand for supplies during a season when the need for gas rises as temperatures fall. The official figures cited in the report point to a potentially large gap between supply and daily demand, while Qalibaf did not specify how much the campaign would actually save.
The campaign is based on a direct financial incentive for consumers: Qalibaf said anyone who saves gas, whatever the amount, would immediately receive the financial value of the savings in their bank account. He said: “Anyone who saves gas, whatever the amount, will immediately receive the corresponding return in their bank account.” The call thus links conservation to a reward paid directly to consumers, rather than relying solely on a request to reduce use. The report did not give the amounts or explain how they would be calculated, but it cited a pledge that payment would be immediate regardless of the amount saved. The campaign comes as Aref expects the shortfall to reach 250 million cubic meters on some days during the cold season, the upper end of the government estimate.
The scale of domestic consumption provides further context for the challenge of securing supplies. Iran’s natural gas consumption exceeded 259 billion cubic meters in 2024, up by more than 4 billion cubic meters from 2023, according to the 2025 annual statistical bulletin published by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. U.S. Energy Information Administration data for 2022 show that residential and commercial consumers accounted for 33% of consumption, the largest share among the sectors listed. Industry, including petrochemicals, accounted for 27%, while power generation accounted for 28%. Cutting residential and commercial use is especially significant in winter, when gas consumption in this group rises with heating needs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Iran’s gas consumption grew 60% during the decade ending in 2023, attributing the increase in part to subsidized prices, an extensive pipeline network, rising domestic production and expansion in industry and petrochemicals. This long-term increase adds to the seasonal pressure on supplies, as rising household and commercial demand coincides with the needs of other gas-dependent sectors. The agency also said Iran lacks sufficient storage capacity to manage seasonal changes in demand. This constraint means that supply management during cold periods depends more heavily on production availability and the daily balance between consumption and available gas. The pledge to pay consumers comes in this context, alongside the consumption-cut target set by Qalibaf.
Aref linked the expected shortfall to war damage, while Agence France-Presse reported that the war with the United States and Israel began in February. The report said the most intense phase of the fighting lasted nearly 40 days and saw major Iranian infrastructure, including natural gas refineries, targeted, according to Tehran. It did not describe the extent of the damage, but noted that facilities linked to gas production were targeted during that phase of the fighting. Earlier, EL7 reported that Iran plans to restore 100 million cubic meters of lost gas production within months. That provides context on efforts to recover some output, but differs from Aref’s forecast of a daily shortfall and Qalibaf’s call for a consumption-cut campaign.
Iran is heading into the cold season with temperatures potentially falling below freezing, particularly in the north of the country, according to Agence France-Presse. Cold weather raises gas demand in homes and commercial facilities, the two sectors that together accounted for 33% of consumption in 2022 data. Qalibaf’s call to cut consumption by at least 10% comes amid this seasonal demand and a forecast daily shortfall of up to 250 million cubic meters. The measure announced so far remains a call for a nationwide campaign accompanied by a financial incentive, while the shortfall estimates are based on the government forecasts cited by Aref. The report did not set a later date to measure the campaign’s impact or the amount it would save before the cold intensifies.