Dollar at 55.7 Pounds as EGX70 Falls 5.8% in Intraday Reading on October 25
Key Facts
Investing.com reported on October 25 that the dollar reached 55.7 pounds, while the EGX70 index fell 5.8% to its lowest level since July 2026. The report said liquidity was about half a billion pounds “so far,” placing the figures in the context of a reading at the time of publication rather than a final tally for the trading session. The reading coincided with continued pressure on Egyptian shares after a week that ended on October 22 with broad losses across indices. The equally weighted EGX70 lost 7.02% during that week, closing at 17,184.31 points. The EGX30 also fell 2.34% to 51,052.26 points, according to a SEE News report.
The decline extended to the broader EGX100 index, which fell 6.05% to 23,117.46 points in the same week. The market capitalization of listed shares fell by about 102 billion pounds, to 3.949 trillion pounds at the end of the week ended October 22. The losses came despite trading value rising to about 777.3 billion pounds, compared with 598.9 billion pounds in the previous week. These figures reflect increased trading activity alongside declines in indices and market capitalization. Investing.com attributed the moves in its report to hot-money outflows, geopolitical pressures and rising oil prices, while EnterpriseAM reported that foreign investors’ outflows were concentrated in government debt instruments.
Investor data present a more mixed picture than the broad outflow narrative: Egyptians accounted for 90% of trading in listed shares during the week, excluding deals, compared with 7.4% for foreigners and 2.6% for Arabs. Foreigners recorded net share purchases of about 218.9 million pounds during the week, while Arab investors posted net sales of 281.9 million pounds. However, foreigners remained net sellers of shares since the start of 2026, with net sales of about 12.3 billion pounds through the report published on October 24, excluding deals. EnterpriseAM had reported that foreigners were net buyers of listed shares in sessions from Sunday through Wednesday, and that the outflows it identified were concentrated in debt instruments. Weekly share-market moves therefore differ from debt flows, and the week’s figures do not establish that the pound’s decline alone caused the indices to fall.
In the foreign-exchange market, EnterpriseAM reported official and bank rates on October 22 that were below the 55.7 reading cited by Investing.com three days later. The dollar was quoted at 55.24 pounds to buy and 55.38 to sell at the Central Bank of Egypt, while National Bank of Egypt quotes were 55.25 to buy and 55.35 to sell. EL7 data also showed the daily close for the dollar-pound pair at 55.25 on October 22, unchanged at the same level on October 23. A Reuters report published on October 24 said the dollar had hit a record 55.27 pounds on Thursday, October 22. Differences in timing and price type across these readings underscore the importance of attributing the 55.7 level to its source and publication date, rather than presenting it as an official closing rate.
EnterpriseAM quoted former officials and bankers as saying that geopolitical tensions in the region, higher global energy prices and the burden of external debt service had pressured the pound. A former official said the move “was expected in light of escalating geopolitical tensions in the region, higher global energy prices and the growing burden of external debt service.” In a Reuters poll of 13 economists conducted from October 5 to 22, the median growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in June 2027 rose to 4.7%, from 4.5% in the July poll. By contrast, participants expected the pound to weaken to 52.14 per dollar by the end of June 2027, compared with a previous forecast of 49 per dollar. Seven economists’ forecasts for the pound at the end of the current fiscal year ranged from 48.76 to 57.50 per dollar, while the Reuters report said the dollar had reached 55.27 pounds on October 22.
The same Reuters poll forecast average inflation of 12.3% in fiscal year 2026/27, down from 13.5% in the July poll. Annual urban inflation also slowed to 13.9% in September, from 14.5% in August. On monetary policy, EnterpriseAM reported that a former official at the Industrial Development Bank expected the central bank to raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for the Thursday after its report published on October 22. A former banker, by contrast, expected rates to remain unchanged at that meeting. These forecasts remain attributed to their sources, with the next meeting serving as the next milestone in markets’ watch on the pound and shares.