About 492 Ships Await Outside Hormuz as Traffic Remains Far Below Historical Levels
Key Facts
The Joint Maritime Information Center estimated that about 492 ships were waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz on October 25, as traffic through the waterway remained far below its historical level. Gulf News reported that the center recorded 101 U.S.-assisted transits between October 22 and 24. That compares with a historical baseline of about 138 transits a day. In a separate incident, a tanker reported being struck by an unknown projectile while leaving the strait on October 22. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said the tanker continued to its destination port, while the center classified the threat level in the strait as severe.
The incident occurred at 1715 UTC, 7 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency. The agency said the tanker reported being struck by an unknown projectile while departing the strait and was able to continue its voyage. It did not identify the type of tanker or its cargo, and did not describe the projectile as a missile. This official characterization distinguishes what has been established about the incident from the previous draft’s account of an LNG tanker and a missile attack. The official source did not attribute a decline or disruption in shipping traffic to the incident alone.
The ships waiting, according to the center’s October 25 estimate, were spread across multiple anchorages and maritime areas around the Gulf. The distribution included 194 ships near Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, and 178 off Dubai. Another 55 ships were near Musandam and Sohar, and 32 off Bandar Abbas and Qeshm. These figures show most ships concentrated in waiting areas on both sides of the strait, with vessels also located near its eastern and western shores. The report did not include immediate confirmation of the congestion figures from Emirati officials.
The center described the threat in the Strait of Hormuz as severe and said the likelihood of a deliberate hostile act was highly likely. It also warned, according to Gulf News, that ships remaining stationary for extended periods may face a higher risk of being targeted, particularly if they keep their automatic identification system switched on. The warning did not call for switching off the system, but pointed to risks associated with ships remaining in place while continuing to broadcast their data. The center’s assessment also covered the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Aden, southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, where it classified threat levels as substantial. The assessment places waiting areas and surrounding waterways in a tense security environment.
The report cited activity by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard that included drone flights, monitoring commercial ships, contacting them by radio and pressuring them to change course. This comes as transits through the strait have fallen to a level far below their historical baseline, despite the continuation of U.S.-assisted voyages. In a wider context, the International Maritime Organization said it had counted 120 confirmed incidents in the region and 24 seafarer deaths as of October 22. The organization also said in an earlier update that as many as 400 ships carrying about 6,000 seafarers had been unable to leave the Gulf safely since the conflict began on February 28, as of August 28. These figures underscore the impact of the risks on ships and their crews over recent months.
The International Maritime Organization’s background figures point to a rise in recorded incidents during the year. On September 16, it said it had verified 80 attacks on commercial ships in the region, killing at least 22 seafarers. In its August 28 update, it had reported documenting 70 attacks and the deaths of 19 seafarers since February 28. Before the war, the strait carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, according to a Reuters report published by MarketScreener. Despite the risks, Lloyd’s List Intelligence told the Associated Press that active tankers had shown few signs of withdrawing, while 28 attacks on ships were recorded in October, the highest number since the war began. The agency also reported that spot tanker charter rates had risen to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, and that ship-to-ship transfers could take several days.
On the diplomatic front, a U.N. spokesperson called for reopening the waterway and reducing tensions, saying: "We need to see this waterway reopened, and we need to see tensions ease." Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran remained open to diplomacy and was prepared to defend itself. The Associated Press reported that Iran continued to put forward a proposal to end the war and fully reopen the strait within a week if the United States met several conditions, including ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. The U.S. president rejected the latest proposal in the previous month. Reopening the strait and reducing tensions remain central to the stated positions, as transits continue at a level far below the historical baseline.