India’s Middle East oil imports reach 2.8 million barrels per day in September
Key Facts
India’s crude oil imports from the Middle East rose to about 2.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since February, as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed and Russian crude imports declined. In a report published by Reuters, India’s total crude imports rose 20% month on month to about 5.33 million barrels per day. Russian shipments fell about 14% to 1.8 million barrels per day. Russia’s share of India’s oil purchases dropped to 33.5% in September from 46.6% in August. Russia nevertheless remained India’s largest single supplier, followed by the UAE and Iraq.
The shift reflects the return of Gulf flows after Middle Eastern oil producers and traders increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply constraints caused by the Iran war. Indian refiners had raised their purchases of Russian crude at the start of the war to offset a shortfall in supplies from the Middle East. As those constraints eased, Gulf shipments regained ground in India’s crude mix. Iraqi imports surged to about 830,000 barrels per day in September, from 171,000 in August. The increase marks Iraq’s return to the list of leading suppliers alongside the recovery in regional supplies.
The price comparison that had supported purchases of Russian crude in previous months also shifted. A source at an Indian refinery said the premium for Russian oil over Brent crude narrowed to $1–2 per barrel, after exceeding $10 in recent months. Russian crude therefore no longer offered refiners the previous price advantage on price alone. The source said the landed cost of Russian crude had become comparable to that of some Middle Eastern grades, particularly Iraqi crude. This comparison puts cargo costs and transit times at the center of refiners’ purchasing calculations.
Transit time also affects supplier choice, according to the Indian refining source. Refiners prefer to maximize purchases of discounted Middle Eastern crude because it arrives sooner, while some producers have cut selling prices to offset higher shipping costs. The source said: "We will buy from whoever offers us better prices." This reflects a commercial decision tied to both crude prices and transport costs. The Reuters report also cited China’s competition for Russian crude, an additional factor in a market where Asian refiners are competing for supplies.
In a separate economic development, the HSBC Flash India Composite PMI Output rose to 56.7 in October from 55.9 in September, recording the fastest expansion in business activity since June. The Financial Express reported that the index remained below its 2026 average. The index provides a reading of business activity in India during the month, while the recovery in oil imports comes against an economy that recorded faster expansion than in the previous month. On employment, services employment was unchanged in October. The nine-month run of employment growth thus ended, despite improving demand, according to the index data.
Markets are awaiting the release of India’s September industrial production reading on October 28, 2026. The calendar page shows the previous August reading at 8.0% year on year, with no published forecast for the upcoming reading. Industrial production data measure output from factories, mines and utilities. The reading is not a direct measure of domestic energy demand. In the global oil market, the International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand forecast, projecting a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day, 940,000 barrels per day more than its estimate in the previous month’s report. The agency said disruptions to flows from the Middle East, higher prices and shipping costs continued to weigh on the outlook; dated North Sea crude was priced at $113.48 per barrel on September 9.
As for India’s upcoming purchases, the refining source said refinery purchases from Russia were likely to remain low in the coming months. The assessment is linked to the convergence in the landed cost of Russian crude and some Middle Eastern grades, as well as the shorter transit time from the Gulf. The source said refiners would continue to weigh suppliers against the best prices. The outlook follows a rise in Middle Eastern imports to their highest level since February, alongside a decline in Russia’s share compared with August. Despite the monthly drop, Russia remained India’s largest single supplier in September.