EL7.AI
CommoditiesMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 23 October 2026•Updated 23 October 2026•
5 min read

Gold Set for Weekly Loss of More Than 3.7% as Oil Rises to $116.72

Key Facts

1Spot gold was on track for a weekly loss of more than 3.7%, and futures for a 3.8% decline, in an October 23 snapshot at 12:14 GMT.
2Reuters estimated gold's weekly loss at 3.5%, after the session low of $3,986.50 an ounce.
3Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on October 23, up 3.1%, its highest level since June 2022.
4Market expectations put the probability of a rate hike at 9% for the October meeting and 81% for the December meeting, according to CME FedWatch as cited by Reuters.

Gold fell on October 23 as oil climbed, amid concerns that higher energy costs could reignite inflation and keep interest rates elevated for longer. At 12:14 GMT, spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,007.92 an ounce, and was on track for a weekly loss of more than 3.7%. Gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,022.10 an ounce, with an expected weekly loss of 3.8%, according to an Investing.com snapshot. In a separate report published by Reuters at 09:36 GMT, spot gold stood at $4,026.15 after hitting a low of $3,986.50, its lowest since July 20. The report put the metal's weekly loss at 3.5%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline; the differences in percentages and prices reflect the different timing of the two snapshots.

EL7 closing data showed gold futures, under the gcusd symbol, fell from $4,181.1 on October 16 to $4,014.4 on October 23. The spot gold close, under the xauusd symbol, also declined from $4,165.42 to $3,997.16 over the same period. These weekly closes provide a separate picture from the intraday trading prices reported during the October 23 session. In the oil market, Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel that day, up 3.1%. Crude was below $97 a barrel at the start of October, while the settlement marked its highest level since June 2022, according to the Associated Press.

Analysts linked oil's pressure on gold to concerns that higher energy prices would feed into inflation and what that could mean for the monetary-policy path. Hammad Hussein, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said the rise in oil "could keep real interest rates elevated for longer," reducing the relative appeal of holding gold. This follows the metal's decline the previous day: spot gold fell 1.9% to $4,060.37 an ounce at 11:34 GMT on October 22, its lowest since August 4. U.S. futures also fell 1.8% to $4,075.70. U.S. consumer and producer inflation data the previous week came in higher than expected, which Reuters attributed largely to rising energy costs, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.

The oil rally has put energy prices at the center of the inflation debate. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the average spot price of Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, and linked the increase to a rise in attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Middle East. The agency added that attacks on Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline temporarily halted flows, and that the spot price of Brent reached an intraday peak of $131 on September 15, as buyers sought to secure near-term supplies. In the minutes of its September meeting, the Federal Reserve said short-term inflation compensation had risen between meetings, "largely reflecting movements in oil prices." But it noted that market and survey measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable at levels consistent with the committee's 2% target.

Minutes of the Fed's September 15 and 16 meeting recorded a rise of about 35 basis points in nominal yields across maturities from two to 10 years between meetings. The minutes attributed part of the increase to a higher expected path for monetary policy and stronger economic data. The Fed had raised its target interest-rate range by a quarter of a percentage point at its September meeting to about 3.9%, according to the Associated Press. On October 23, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose to 4.99% from 4.96% late the previous day. These levels keep the path of interest rates and yields among the factors investors track when assessing the cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, as cited by Reuters, market expectations put the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's October 27 and 28 meeting at 9% at the time of the report, versus an 81% probability of a hike in December. These are market estimates, not an official decision or forecast from the central bank. The Fed will hold its meeting over two days, with a news conference on October 28. Investors are also awaiting September personal income and spending data on October 29 at 8:30 a.m., which includes the personal consumption expenditures measure the Fed prefers to track inflation. The data are being watched for signs of progress toward the 2% inflation target.

In its October outlook, the Energy Information Administration forecast that the average spot price of Brent would reach $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from its estimate in the previous month's report. The forecast was based on the assumption that oil flows from the Middle East would remain constrained. The projection puts continued supply disruptions in the context markets are monitoring alongside U.S. inflation data. Oil's effect on gold expectations will depend on what higher energy prices may mean for inflation and real interest rates, according to Hussein's assessment. Personal consumption expenditures data and the Fed meeting remain the next two events investors are watching in late October.