Crypto contract volume hits a record $2.7 billion in a week
Key Facts
The notional volume of cryptocurrency contracts traded on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion during a week in mid-October 2026, according to a report published by Crypto Briefing via TradingView. Bitcoin bets made up the bulk of the activity, with volume in its contracts on Kalshi alone exceeding $2 billion in one week. The figure refers to the notional value of traded contracts, or their combined face value, rather than the money traders paid to buy them. Cryptocurrency-related contracts ranked second in activity on the two platforms, behind sports contracts. Products linked to the increase included short-term contracts that settle on Bitcoin's direction over 15 minutes.
Kalshi's contract betting on whether Bitcoin would rise or fall over 15 minutes was the leading short-term product in the report. According to Kalshi's help center, the contract compares the average price in the minute before the close with the average in the minute before the open. Most of the platform's cryptocurrency price markets settle using the average CF Benchmarks index price during the 60 seconds before the time specified in the market rules. The index aggregates dollar spot prices from multiple platforms rather than relying on a single platform's price. This mechanism sets the settlement reference, while the contracts remain bets on the price move's outcome during their defined window.
On Polymarket's U.S. platform, the volume of 15-minute Bitcoin contracts reached about $92 million to $101 million in their first full week of operation, according to Crypto Briefing. That figure was below the more than $2 billion in Bitcoin contract volume on Kalshi alone during a week, but shows that fast contracts also appeared among the U.S. platform's products. At the same time, Kalshi's activity across all categories reached $19.03 billion during the week of 5–11 October 2026, according to the same report. That total includes the platform's contracts across different categories, so it is not directly comparable with the combined cryptocurrency volume on the two platforms. The comparison shows the breadth of activity across Kalshi products, while the record at the center of the report remains specific to cryptocurrency contracts on the two platforms.
EL7's daily data show that Bitcoin closed at $84,093.42 on 21 October, before closing at $80,490.01 on 24 October 2026. These closes put price movements over the same days in the context of broader trading in cryptocurrency-related contracts. But notional contract volume measures the value of traded contracts and does not represent buying flows into Bitcoin in the spot market. Nor does the figure alone determine the subsequent price direction, as it relates to trading activity on prediction platforms. In June 2026, EL7.AI reported that open interest in Bitcoin contracts on Kalshi had reached record levels, indicating that activity in these products had drawn attention earlier in the year.
Settlement mechanics take on added importance in short-term contracts because each contract's outcome depends on comparing two average prices at specified times, under Kalshi's rules. Longer-dated contracts, or markets targeting price levels over a given period, differ in time horizon from the 15-minute up-or-down contract. In early October, Kalshi traders priced the probability that Bitcoin would exceed $90,000 during the month at 56%. The platform said Bitcoin had risen above $86,000 more than a week earlier, then settled near $84,000, trading at $84,300 on Thursday afternoon before 1 October. Kalshi's comparison also showed Bitcoin down 3.69% in October 2025, after rising 10.7% in October 2024 and 28.5% in October 2023.
Interest in prediction markets has also extended to issues involving the use of information in trading. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a memo that "Our enemies are watching activity in these markets," while the Pentagon issued guidance barring military personnel from using nonpublic information to bet on military outcomes. The Associated Press reported that the ban covers classified information and unclassified but nonpublic information when trading on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. In other coverage, the agency cited blockchain data company Dune as saying trading volume across the two platforms reached $26.6 billion, compared with $9.75 billion in October of the previous year. It added that about two-thirds of the activity it covered was on Kalshi, which dominated the U.S. market with support from sports trading.