Brent jumps 4% to $113.17 as shipping and supply risks mount
Key Facts
Brent crude jumped 4% to $113.17 a barrel after touching its highest level in 5 months, according to Associated Press coverage on Thursday, October 22, 2026, amid risks to oil production and transport in the region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration linked risks to tanker transit to higher shipping costs and an increased risk premium in crude prices. Brent's rise followed a session in which West Texas Intermediate crude closed lower, according to Reuters. U.S. crude ended trading on Wednesday, October 21, at $97.15 a barrel, down 67 cents, or 0.7%. WTI trading activity had shifted to the more liquid December contract ahead of the November contract's expiry, according to separate Reuters coverage. The agency said "trading activity was concentrated in the more liquid December contract."
In the United States, commercial crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended October 16, 2026, according to the EIA's weekly summary. Those inventories, which exclude the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 412.5 million barrels at the end of the week. They were 3% below the 5-year average, according to the agency, as some regional production remained disrupted. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency estimated disrupted oil production in the region at about 4.8 million barrels a day during September 2026. That compared with disrupted production of 5.8 million barrels a day in August, according to estimates in the same report. The picture thus combined falling U.S. commercial inventories with a partial decline in the volume of regional production shut in, while disruptions continued through September.
On maritime transport routes, ship-tracking firm Kpler said at least 18 attacks on vessels had been reported over two weeks, according to a Reuters report published on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. The tally appeared in a note the company issued on Monday, documenting the frequency of attacks over the period it covered. In the Strait of Hormuz, tankers continued carrying oil despite the recent escalation in attacks, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence, cited by the Associated Press. The company said the tankers were operating under U.S. military protection. Describing the continued crossings, it said "oil tankers are still carrying oil through the strait under U.S. military protection despite the recent escalation in attacks." The protected tanker movements coincided with shipping risks that the EIA said "increased shipping costs and raised the risk premium."
In Saudi Arabia, Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said the capacity of the East-West pipeline had risen from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day, according to an interview cited by the Associated Press in its October 22, 2026, coverage. Nasser's comparison between the pipeline's previous capacity and the capacity he cited in the interview came during a discussion of the company's operations amid the attacks. Nasser also said Aramco was using drones to assess damage caused by Houthi attacks on oil fields. He added that the drones also help fight fires. On the diplomatic front, the U.S. State Department ordered non-essential staff to leave the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, according to the Associated Press. The departure order also covered the embassy's consulates amid escalating Houthi attacks.
Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its October report that the Brent spot price would average $105 a barrel. The agency's forecast covers the fourth quarter of 2026. It said in the report: "We expect the Brent spot price to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026." The quarterly estimate forms part of the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook, alongside its estimates of disrupted regional production. The agency includes tanker transit risks and shipping costs among the factors associated with the risk premium in oil prices.