EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•23 October 2026•
4 min read

U.S. restrictions could cut humanoid robot revenue 58% below baseline by 2030

Key Facts

1IDC estimated that U.S. humanoid robot revenue in 2030 would be 58% below baseline if the restriction remains in place.
2IDC expects a gap of 41% below baseline in 2027 and 58% in 2030.
3The FCC added advanced robotic devices produced outside the United States to the Covered List on 28 July 2026.
4IDC does not expect large-scale U.S. humanoid robot production before the end of 2028.
5IDC estimates China’s current share of global humanoid robot shipments at about 82%.

U.S. restrictions could leave humanoid robot revenue in the United States 58% below the previous baseline by 2030 if they remain in place, according to an estimate by IDC. The estimate projects an impact on the market’s trajectory, rather than a decline in revenue that has already occurred. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission added advanced robotic devices produced outside the United States to its Covered List on 28 July 2026. The listing prevents these devices from receiving new equipment authorizations. The commission said the decision was based on a government determination that the devices pose an unacceptable risk to U.S. national security.

IDC’s model expects the gap to emerge gradually, with U.S. humanoid robot revenue 41% below baseline in 2027 before widening to 58% in 2030. That would be a much larger impact than the estimate for other robot categories tracked by the company. In those categories, U.S. market revenue is expected to be 4% below baseline in 2027 and 18% in 2030. The divergence makes humanoid robots the category most exposed in IDC’s estimates. Part of the gap is linked to the pace of model turnover, which reduces the number of authorized models available to offset a ban on authorizing new foreign models.

IDC says humanoid robots have a faster refresh cycle than any other category, leaving almost no inventory of authorized models to absorb the impact of the restrictions. The rule allows previously authorized models to continue shipping new units, an exemption that softens the impact on existing products. It also exempts categories including stationary industrial arms, medical devices and mobility devices. But continued shipments of authorized models do not allow new foreign models to be authorized, limiting the exemption’s ability to make up for a shortage of new options. IDC estimated that China currently accounts for 82% of global humanoid robot shipments.

The restriction comes in a market where global shipments remain relatively limited: the Associated Press reported that about 15,000 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide during 2025. Chinese companies Unitree and AGIBOT each shipped more than 5,000 robots that year, compared with a few hundred or fewer for each of Tesla and Figure AI. The comparison shows the scale of the shipment gap between Chinese and U.S. companies in the current market. Meanwhile, IDC does not expect U.S. humanoid robot builders to reach large-scale mass production before the end of 2028. That timing limits the ability of domestic manufacturing to replace foreign supply in the near term.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said it was time to move a significant amount of investment and production to the United States, arguing that robots could become important national security assets. Democratic Commissioner Anna Gomez, however, criticized how the changes were implemented, saying companies and industry leaders were concerned about the “haphazard and chaotic way” they were introduced. The potential impact extends to markets outside the United States: IDC’s model points to higher forecasts for professional, commercial and humanoid robots in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and other regions. The company says China is not the leading consumer in the categories it tracks, which could allow some sales blocked from the U.S. market to be redirected elsewhere. Open markets could therefore benefit from sales being redirected, alongside the U.S. restrictions.

The rule provides a conditional approval path: approval from the Department of War can exempt specific robotic devices from the Covered List. According to IDC’s explanation, 1 January 2028 is the deadline for submitting conditional approval applications. The path applies to specific devices and does not remove restrictions on new authorizations generally. On trade tensions, China warned it would respond if the United States insisted on acting unilaterally and called on Washington to withdraw the measures. The preliminary report on U.S. durable goods orders for September is scheduled for release on 27 October 2026.