EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 23 October 2026•Updated 23 October 2026•
4 min read

56.0 for Manufacturing and 57.9 for Services in October’s Preliminary US Activity Index

Key Facts

1The manufacturing PMI stood at 56.0 points, versus expectations of 55.5 points, in October 2026.
2The services index registered 57.9 points in October 2026, below expectations of 58.0 points.
3Chris Williamson said output readings are consistent with annual GDP growth of 5%.
4Employment in October grew at its strongest pace since June 2022.

The US manufacturing PMI registered a preliminary reading of 56.0 points in October, above expectations of 55.5 points, while the services PMI came in at 57.9 points, below expectations of 58.0 points, according to data reported by InvestingLive from S&P Global. The readings offer a mixed picture of activity at the start of the fourth quarter: manufacturing performed better than expected, while services fell short of the estimate ahead of the release. Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that "output readings are consistent with GDP growth at an annual rate of 5%." The estimate is based on survey results and does not represent an official GDP reading. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP growth next week.

A comparison with expectations shows that the relative improvement was in manufacturing, whose reading exceeded the estimate, while services came in slightly below the expected level. The manufacturing reading of 56.0 is the sector’s headline index reading and should not be confused with the manufacturing output index, which was reported separately in the release summary. The figures available here do not provide an October reading for the composite index, so it cannot be inferred from the two sector results. In September, the US composite index stood at 58.4 points, its highest level in more than five years, according to a report EL7 published at the time. The previous month’s reading provides context for the strength of activity before October’s results, but does not by itself determine the direction of the composite index in the new month.

Williamson said companies’ expectations for output over the next twelve months declined from September, but remained the second-highest reading recorded this year. Meanwhile, employment in October was growing at its strongest pace since June 2022, according to the S&P Global summary reported by InvestingLive. The combination of slightly lower output expectations and strong hiring suggests companies continued to add workers despite a decline in optimism from the previous month. The available summary did not give a separate employment figure or quantify the decline in output expectations, so the comparison remains qualitative. This places employment and expectations within the mixed sector picture shown by the manufacturing and services results.

Price pressures remain an important focus in assessing activity data, after an S&P Global analysis said the pace of cost increases in the US accelerated in September to its highest level since October 2022. The analysis linked the strength of activity at the time to persistent inflation risks and signals reinforcing monetary tightening. In the market reaction to September’s data, US Treasury yields on five- and ten-year notes rose above 5%, reaching their highest levels since 2007, according to the same analysis. Those figures relate to September’s market reaction and do not describe a move in yields following October’s release. With manufacturing above expectations and costs having accelerated earlier, prices remain part of the backdrop to debate over the path of monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve will hold its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 27 and 28, with the press conference scheduled for October 28, according to the Fed’s calendar. The date alone does not establish the interest rate the committee will set or the direction of its decision. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will then release its September personal income and outlays report on October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, including the personal consumption expenditures price index, alongside the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP. These releases follow activity survey data that offered signals on output, employment and prices. The final October PMI readings are due next: the manufacturing index on November 2, followed by the services and composite indexes on November 4, according to S&P Global.