UAE oil output hits record 5.3 million barrels a day in September
Key Facts
Total UAE oil production, including condensates, rose to a record 5.3 million barrels a day in September 2026, Bloomberg reported, citing the International Energy Agency. Output increased by 400,000 barrels a day from the previous month as the UAE led supply growth outside the OPEC+ alliance. The estimates appeared in the agency's October Oil Market Report, published on October 14, 2026. Total oil production thus surpassed the previous record set in August. Crude oil production exceeded 4.4 million barrels a day in September, surpassing its previous peak recorded in June. The agency described crude output that month as "close to maximum capacity," with both production including condensates and crude output reaching new highs.
The UAE's record levels followed its departure from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, a decision it announced would take effect on May 1, 2026, according to the Associated Press. When announcing its withdrawal, the UAE said production additions would be gradual. It linked the pace of those additions to demand and market conditions, according to the agency. Against the backdrop of the production expansion, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said ADNOC had raised its planned capital spending to $150 billion. The program covers the period from 2023 to 2027 as part of the company's expansion plans. The new production levels thus coincided with the implementation of a multiyear capital spending program and followed the UAE's effective withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ arrangements.
Globally, the International Energy Agency said oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day in September from the previous month. Total supply reached 102.3 million barrels a day, led by Gulf producers. The recovery extended to crude exports from Gulf countries, which reached 13.9 million barrels a day during the same month. Those exports increased by 4.4 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia among the leading producers driving the increase, according to the report. Along shipping routes, ship-to-ship cargo transfers in the Gulf of Oman helped oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover during September. The improvement in flows through the strait coincided with increased regional production and higher crude export volumes from Gulf producers.
Despite the recovery in regional supplies, the International Energy Agency's report showed Brent futures had risen 13% from the start of September to the preparation of the October report. Those contracts reached about $107 a barrel, according to the agency. In the spot market, Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That average was $23 a barrel higher than in August, marking a monthly increase in spot prices alongside the rebound in supplies. On inventories, the International Energy Agency said observed global oil stocks at the end of September were below pre-war levels. The cumulative shortfall in those inventories stood at 509 million barrels, against a market backdrop of rising prices despite the restoration of some Gulf flows.
In its demand estimates for 2026, the International Energy Agency forecast global oil consumption would decline by an annual average of 2.6 million barrels a day. It attributed the expected decline to higher prices and a deteriorating economic outlook. Even so, it expected the "market to remain in deficit" through year-end, despite lower demand and recovering supplies. Some supply constraints extend to middle distillates, according to the report. The agency expected supply constraints for these products to persist into the following year, beyond the oil market deficit projected through the end of 2026.