28 Ship Attacks in October Mark Highest Level Since War Began
Key Facts
Ships came under 28 attacks in October, the highest number since the war began, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence in a report cited by The Associated Press. The UK Maritime Trade Operations unit said the month saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, during the war’s first weeks. The figures measure different indicators: the tally of attacks counted by Lloyd’s List and incidents reported to the UK unit. The unit said some shipping companies had become reluctant to report incidents. It also did not record the latest Iranian attacks covered in The Associated Press report, underscoring that monitoring figures do not necessarily include every incident in circulation.
In a separate account, Iranian state media said seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged after being targeted or striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz overnight from Wednesday to Thursday. The Associated Press reported the claim from Tehran on Thursday but said it could not independently verify it. The number of tankers and the nature of the damage therefore remained within the scope of what Iranian media had announced, rather than an independently confirmed tally. The agency did not link the claim to a new incident involving a Kuwaiti tanker on October 23. This distinction tempered the role of unverified accounts in assessing the monthly toll, which is based on the Lloyd’s List figure and the UK reporting indicator.
Despite the risks, tankers carrying oil from Gulf producers continued to transit the strait at night through a corridor protected by U.S. forces near the Omani coast, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. The vessels switch off their positioning systems and mobile phones while crossing. After clearing the strait, the cargoes are transferred to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman, then shipped to customers in Asia. What The Associated Press described as “dark shipping,” overseen by U.S. Central Command, helped restore oil shipments from the Gulf to levels close to those before the war. But the flow continued at a higher cost in time and money, and with risks to seafarers’ lives.
The cost of the route is reflected in spot tanker charter rates, which rose to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, according to The Associated Press. Ship-to-ship oil transfers can also take several days, adding time to a cargo’s journey before it heads to customers. A maritime analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said, according to USNI News, that attacks on ships drive up prices for diesel and other refined petroleum products, including gasoline. The report added that the strait has no alternative routes capable of carrying the same volume of oil that passes through it. These costs keep the question of cargo transit in focus even as oil continues to flow through the protected corridor.
Lloyd’s List data on traffic between October 5 and 11 showed 104 non-Iranian-linked vessels transiting the strait, down 17% week over week but still 31% above the weekly average in August. Over the same period, 51 vessels left the Gulf, compared with 68 the previous week, while inbound vessels fell to 53 from 58. Inbound traffic included 38 crude oil tankers, equal to their weekly average in September. The figures show a decline in traffic from the previous week, while transit remained above the August average and crude tankers continued to arrive. They capture traffic over a specific week, alongside the monthly attack tally and the indicator for reported incidents.
On an alternative route bypassing the strait, the capacity of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline rose from two million barrels to seven million barrels a day, The Associated Press reported, citing the head of Aramco. The pipeline offers an option for moving oil away from Hormuz, but the capacity increase announcement does not specify how much cargo could actually be redirected through it. The spokesman for the U.N. secretary-general said commercial ships should not be attacked, urging the United States and Iran to pursue diplomacy to reopen the strait and reduce tensions. The agency reported that Iran had put forward a proposal to fully open the strait within a week if the United States met conditions including ending its blockade of Iranian ports. An analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Tehran could use the strait as a bargaining tool, while easing tensions and reopening it remained tied to the diplomatic track.