Scatec cuts 2026 EBITDA estimate by NOK 300 million to NOK 3.3–3.6 billion
Key Facts
On 21 October, Scatec cut its full-year 2026 proportional energy-production EBITDA estimate by NOK 300 million to a range of NOK 3,300–3,600 million, in a revision reflecting simultaneous pressure on its operations and markets. In its second-quarter report issued on 21 August, the company had maintained an estimate of NOK 3,600–3,900 million. The revision lowers both the floor and ceiling of the range, while the new estimate remains for the same year. Renewables Now valued the cut at about EUR 28.5 million and USD 32.0 million. Scatec’s announcement specified the cut in Norwegian kroner.
In Ukraine, Scatec said intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure disrupted the operation of its plants and delayed repairs to a plant directly hit in 2025. It added that the continuing war had damaged the country’s risk assessment and long-term electricity price outlook. This leaves the company’s operations facing disruption and risks related to estimating its future revenue in the Ukrainian market. The company did not specify in the announcement how much this factor alone contributed to the estimate cut. It is one of a group of reasons the company said led to the revision.
In the Philippines, the Energy Regulatory Commission announced on 12 October that it was suspending the reserve market for ancillary services. The commission asked the market operator to propose a redesigned structure within six months, while seeking longer-term contracts to meet demand. Scatec said the market suspension was among the factors affecting its energy-production EBITDA estimate. The regulatory change in the ancillary services market coincides with the company’s review of its annual outlook. Scatec did not detail the suspension’s specific financial impact or its share of the overall cut.
In South Africa, commercial operation of the Mogobe battery energy storage system has been delayed by late connection works being carried out by state-owned Eskom. This postpones the system’s entry into commercial operation, which Scatec included among the reasons for revising its annual estimate. In Pakistan, the company said the electricity tariff settlement, which was expected to be completed during 2026, is likely to be delayed. The reasons for the revision thus extend to delays in grid connection and tariff resolution, alongside disruption in Ukraine and regulatory change in the Philippines. The company did not assign a separate figure to any of these developments.
The company also noted that its main operating currencies had continued to weaken against the Norwegian krone since its previous report, weighing on its 2026 EBITDA estimate when activity results are translated into the reporting currency. The cut therefore combines factors related to operations, infrastructure, regulation and pricing, alongside the effect of exchange rates. In the second quarter of 2026, Scatec’s proportional energy production was 1,135 gigawatt-hours, up 21% year on year, while energy-production EBITDA was NOK 805 million, compared with NOK 1,110 million in the second quarter of 2025. This provides context for the divergence between production growth and lower EBITDA in the comparison period, without by itself identifying each factor’s impact on the annual estimate. The company has 6.6 gigawatts of generation capacity and 2 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity in operation or under construction across five continents, according to its second-quarter report.
Scatec said it would provide an update on the financial impact of these developments when it presents its third-quarter results on 30 October 2026. The upcoming presentation is the date the company has set to clarify how operational and market factors are reflected in its financial results. The update follows the cut in its full-year estimate to a range of NOK 3,300–3,600 million, compared with the previous range of NOK 3,600–3,900 million. This will allow investors to follow what the company announces about the impact of the developments on its outlook. The announcement of the cut did not break down each factor’s contribution.