Brent Jumps to $117.20 as Dow Jones Falls 541 Points
Key Facts
Brent crude rose 3.6% to $117.20 a barrel on October 23, its highest level since March, after trading below $97 at the start of the month, according to The Associated Press. The rise in crude came as U.S. stocks were mixed during trading, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.1%. The Dow Jones was down 541 points, or 1%, at 12:33 p.m. Eastern time. The moves highlight the broader impact of rising energy prices across companies in the sector and the rest of the market. Closing data also correct the picture of oil-company shares in the first version of the report.
Shares of Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy did not post gains at the October 22 close, according to EL7 data. Devon shares closed at $49.18, compared with $49.87 on October 21. Diamondback shares ended the session at $197.14, down from $200.93 the previous day. Occidental Petroleum shares also closed at $62.50, compared with $62.70 on October 21. These prices do not support describing any of the three stocks as rising 5% or 3% on October 22, nor do they by themselves establish that their moves were directly linked to the rise in crude.
In the October 23 session, other energy companies benefited from the rise in oil, with Chevron shares up 2.9% and ConocoPhillips shares up 4.6%, according to The Associated Press. But the two companies’ gains came in a broader market under pressure, with three out of every four S&P 500 stocks falling. The index posted an overall decline of 0.3%, while the Nasdaq bucked the trend with a modest 0.1% gain. The Dow Jones was lower at midday, pointing to varied responses across market indexes. That puts energy-stock gains in the context of mixed sector performance, rather than a broad advance in U.S. stocks.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration linked the price surge to ongoing constraints on oil flows from the Middle East. It estimated average shut-in production at 4.8 million barrels per day in September, compared with 5.8 million in August and a peak of 10.9 million in May. In its October report, the agency said Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August. The daily price also reached $131 a barrel on September 15, following attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. These figures show that October’s jump came after a month that had already seen high prices and widespread production disruptions.
The EIA raised its forecast for Brent’s average price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel, an increase of $14 from the previous month’s estimate. The forecast assumes that oil flows from the Middle East will remain constrained through the end of the quarter, with average shut-in production of 4.5 million barrels per day. The agency expects most of the region’s production to return to its pre-conflict average by the end of the second quarter of 2027. On that basis, it expects Brent to average $87 a barrel in that quarter. Over the following year, it expects the average price to fall to $84 a barrel as flows from the Middle East increase.
The EIA is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, 2026. The report will follow the current forecast, which combines high prices in the fourth quarter with an assumption that supply constraints will persist through the quarter. It also includes a timeline for most regional production to return by the end of the second quarter of 2027. The agency links that expected recovery to a decline in average Brent prices to $87 in that quarter, then to $84 in 2027. These estimates remain part of the agency’s published outlook, while market prices on October 23 showed Brent rising to $117.20 a barrel.