Middle East Crude Flows Reach 24 Million Barrels a Day as Products Lag
Key Facts
Middle East crude flows averaged about 24 million barrels a day over the 7 days through around October 21, exceeding the pre-war baseline of 23 million, according to Kpler. That puts crude movements slightly above the previous conflict reference level, but does not mean fuel flows have recovered at the same pace. Gulf petroleum product exports remained about 50% below pre-war levels through October 21. The comparison shows a gap between crude flows and the arrival of refined products in markets. Kpler said, "Products have not caught up with this recovery"; the rebound in crude has not ended disruption to product trade.
Loading data illustrate the slowdown in clean products. Shipments from the Gulf and diverted routes reached 3 million barrels a day earlier in September, before falling to 2.5 million barrels a day in the latest days covered by Kpler's analysis. The decline followed an earlier rise in loadings, showing that the recovery has not been a straight line. Product volumes also remain below pre-war levels, according to the company's estimate of Gulf exports. The gap is concentrated in product shipments, even as crude available for export has returned to a level close to the baseline. This means the restoration of crude flows has not yet been accompanied by a comparable recovery in refined product movements.
Kpler links continued pressure on fuel markets to higher shipping costs, and says diesel prices reflect the imbalance between crude and products. On October 21, the Brent contract for December delivery traded slightly below $110 a barrel, while the November gasoil contract stood at about $1,477 a ton. These prices place crude and refined products in the same context of supply and transport pressures. According to the company's analysis, the higher cost of moving cargoes limits the viability of some product supply routes. Kpler attributes the gap not only to a shortage of crude, but also points to freight costs and the imbalance in products. That distinction remains key to understanding why product exports have been slower to recover than crude flows.
Navigation risks persist alongside the flow of crude through the region. Kpler said 18 vessels came under attack during an 11-day window through October 21, describing the waterways as still contested. These incidents show that regular flows do not mean the risks facing ships and cargoes have disappeared. Continued threats also help explain some of the higher transport costs cited by the company in its analysis of the diesel market. In a broader picture of crude flows, Kpler estimated that volumes leaving the Gulf, excluding Iran, together with supplies from Saudi Arabia's west coast and the UAE's east coast, were close to 18.5 million barrels a day. Including diverted volumes loaded from the two coasts, these flows reached about 100% of pre-conflict levels, according to the company.
International Energy Agency data reinforce the picture of an uneven recovery between crude and products. Global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day month on month in September to 102.3 million barrels a day, driven by Gulf producers. Crude exports from Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, increased by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million, or more than 75% of pre-war levels. By contrast, refined product exports stood at 1.9 million barrels a day in September, compared with a pre-war level of 4.7 million. Liquefied petroleum gas exports were 670,000 barrels a day, against 1.5 million before the war. The agency said refined product exports rose by 210,000 barrels a day in September, while liquefied petroleum gas exports increased by 90,000, but both remained below their previous benchmarks.
The product shortage extended to global diesel trade. Diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrels a day lower than in the same month a year earlier, after the market lost 1.3 million barrels a day of Russian and Middle Eastern supplies, which were not fully offset by increased supply from other sources, according to the International Energy Agency. Observed global oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels in September, with onshore inventories down by 113 million, while a rise in oil in transit by sea offset part of the decline. At the end of September, global inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. In its outlook, the agency said global oil demand could fall by 2.5 million barrels a day year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, and by an average of 2.6 million a day over the year. It expects a partial recovery of 2 million barrels a day in 2027, with use remaining 620,000 barrels a day below the 2025 level.
Shipping schedules cited by Kpler indicate that supplying products to Europe requires planning weeks before arrival. The first cargo targeted for arrival in January needs to be loaded in Houston in mid-December. Shipping via the Cape of Good Hope from Jamnagar requires loading around November 25 to arrive in January. These schedules come amid continued navigation risks and higher freight costs, two factors the company said are weighing on fuel markets. Kpler did not specify when Gulf product exports would return to pre-war levels. The comparison of recent loadings with September levels, alongside the timing of shipments bound for Europe, remains an indicator of the recovery's trajectory in the coming weeks.