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Macro EconomyMediumUpdated•Originally published 23 October 2026•Updated 23 October 2026•
1 min read

Canada Retail Sales Rise 1.2% in August with Positive September Outlook

Key Facts

1Canadian retail sales grew by 1.2% in August, slightly missing the expected 1.3% increase.
2Advance estimates for September showed a further 0.7% growth, strengthening rate hike expectations.
3USD/CAD hit a one-month low, breaking below 1.40 due to diverging expectations between the BoC and the Fed.

Canadian retail sales grew by 1.2% in August, slightly missing the expected 1.3% increase according to investinglive.com. Advance estimates for September showed a further 0.7% growth, strengthening expectations for a rate hike. The rebound from a previous 0.7% contraction was led by motor vehicle sales and discretionary spending.

USD/CAD hit a one-month low, breaking below 1.40 due to diverging expectations between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Related data from October 23, 2026, showed retail sales excluding autos grew 1.2% month-over-month, exceeding the 1% forecast. Additionally, Canada's annual inflation rate was reported at 3.1% on October 19, 2026, maintaining pressure on monetary policy.

The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on October 28, 2026, with forecasts suggesting a potential hike to 2.5% from the previous 2.25%. The decision will be accompanied by the BoC Monetary Policy Report and a press conference on the same day to outline the economic outlook.

Latest Updates · 1

  1. Notable·

    Update: Total retail sales reached $74.6 billion in August, with sales volumes increasing by 1.2%. Conversely, data showed the Canadian economy lost 68,000 jobs in September 2026, which may impact future consumer spending levels.