Aramco: Replenishing Oil Stocks Could Take Two Years After Strait of Hormuz Fully Reopens
Key Facts
Fully replenishing global oil stocks could take nearly two years even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, while demand continues to be met, according to an estimate by Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser. Nasser delivered his remarks at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on October 5, 2026, according to Aramco. The remarks are being circulated on October 23, after the speech outlined the scale of the stocks and supply consumed during the crisis. Nasser said the world entered the crisis with about 10 billion barrels in oil stocks. Since it began, the market has lost nearly 3 billion barrels from total crude oil supply.
Nasser said the volume of lost supply was roughly equivalent to half the crude oil and products that were expected to pass through the Strait of Hormuz over the same period. To ease the impact of the disruption, more than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from stocks since the crisis began. Most of those withdrawals came from onshore commercial stocks, which Nasser described as "the last tool remaining." Commercial stocks still available are estimated at less than 6 billion barrels at the time of the speech. But Nasser said the vast majority of the remaining volume is not practically available, limiting the support stocks can provide to the market.
Nasser linked the supply shock to the near-total, prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as "the world's most important energy artery." He said maritime shipping was affected and supply chains were disrupted as the closure continued. About 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait in 2024, equivalent to about 20% of global oil consumption, according to the Associated Press. That volume provides context for the impact of the route's disruption on crude and product flows. Nasser said restoring stocks depends not only on reopening the strait, but also on replenishing the volumes drawn down while continuing to meet demand.
International Energy Agency data show that flows through the strait improved in September, but remained below pre-crisis levels. Oil flows through Hormuz rose to 10.9 million barrels per day, while Gulf producers' exports reached 13.9 million barrels per day, or more than 75% of pre-war levels. The agency's member countries had released about 325 million barrels as part of the collective action announced in March, according to its statement on October 7. The agency added that releasing the remaining pledged volumes would put about 100 million additional barrels on the market. Nasser said emergency reserves could help the world get through a "stormy winter," but would not address a long-term supply shortfall.
Market pressures were reflected in higher oil prices during the period covered by the agency's October report. Brent futures rose 13% from the start of September to about $107 a barrel. Dated North Sea crude rose 43% to $134 a barrel, outpacing the increase in futures. Nasser said refined fuel prices had risen further and more sharply than crude prices. On September 18, the International Energy Agency warned that continued restrictions on Gulf supplies and the depletion of commercial stocks could require higher prices and a further decline in demand to balance the market.
On export options, Nasser said Aramco was studying additional routes for transporting crude oil and exploring external storage options to help cover short-term disruptions. In an interview published by the Associated Press on October 22, he said the capacity of the East-West pipeline had increased from 2 million barrels to 7 million barrels per day. The pipeline runs along a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Associated Press. The increase provides an additional export option in the context of the company's efforts to manage shipping disruption. Nasser's estimate for rebuilding stocks, meanwhile, remains contingent on the full reopening of the strait and continued demand being met in parallel.