EL7.AI
StocksMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 23 October 2026•Updated 23 October 2026•
4 min read

Scatec cuts 2026 EBITDA estimate by NOK 300 million to NOK 3,300–3,600 million

Key Facts

1Scatec cut its 2026 power production EBITDA estimate by NOK 300 million to NOK 3,300–3,600 million.
2The previous estimate for 2026 was between NOK 3,600 million and NOK 3,900 million.
3Proportional power production in the second quarter was 1,135 gigawatt-hours, up 21%, while EBITDA fell to NOK 805 million from NOK 1,110 million.
4Scatec expected the electricity tariff settlement in Pakistan, which had been expected to be resolved during 2026, to be delayed.
5Scatec set October 30, 2026 as the date for its third-quarter results and presentation.

On October 21, Scatec cut its 2026 proportional power production EBITDA estimate by NOK 300 million to a range of NOK 3,300–3,600 million, reflecting operational and regulatory pressures and currency-related factors across its markets. The company's previous estimate for the same year was between NOK 3,600 million and NOK 3,900 million. The revision covers both the lower and upper ends of the previous forecast, while retaining an annual range rather than a single figure. The company said changes in its operations and markets prompted it to revise the estimate. It is scheduled to provide an update on the financial effects of these developments when it presents its third-quarter results.

In Ukraine, Scatec said intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure were disrupting the operation of its plants and delaying repair work at a plant hit directly in 2025. It said the continuing war was negatively affecting the country's risk assessment and its long-term electricity price forecasts. This factor combines production disruptions at the plants with changing conditions underpinning electricity price forecasts. The company pointed to delays in the repair work without specifying a new completion date. It also did not provide a separate estimate of Ukraine's financial contribution to the forecast cut.

In the Philippines, the Energy Regulatory Commission announced on October 12 that it was suspending the reserve market for ancillary services. The commission asked the market operator to propose a redesigned structure within six months, while longer-term contracts to meet demand are explored in the meantime. Scatec said the market suspension was among the developments that affected its power production EBITDA estimate. The regulatory decision leaves the ancillary services market facing a period of redesigning its operating mechanism, while longer-term contractual arrangements are explored. The company did not detail the decision's financial impact or its share of the overall cut.

In South Africa, Scatec listed the delayed commercial operation of the Mogobe battery storage system among the negative factors, attributing the delay to disruption of grid connection works. This postpones the system's start of commercial operation, with no new date specified in the company's statement. In Pakistan, the company said the electricity tariff settlement, which had been expected to be resolved during 2026, was likely to be delayed. This means the estimate revision covered a storage project that has not begun commercial operation and a long-awaited tariff settlement. Scatec did not assign a specific amount to either development.

The company added that exchange rates for its main operating currencies had continued to weaken against the Norwegian krone since its last report, negatively affecting its 2026 estimate. This factor comes alongside developments in Ukraine, the Philippines, South Africa and Pakistan, with no breakdown of the impact by market or currency. Second-quarter results provide context for the divergence between output and earnings: proportional power production was 1,135 gigawatt-hours, up 21% year over year, while power production EBITDA was NOK 805 million compared with NOK 1,110 million in the second quarter of 2025. Scatec attributed the decline in power production revenue from the year-earlier period mainly to one-off items in the previous quarter, including a retroactive tariff settlement in the Philippines of NOK 231 million. The company said it had 6.6 gigawatts of generating capacity and 2 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity in operation or under construction across five continents.

In its fourth-quarter 2025 report, Scatec had set an initial 2026 power production EBITDA estimate of between NOK 3.8 billion and NOK 4.1 billion, before later cutting it to a range of NOK 3,600–3,900 million and then to the current range. The latest revision follows declines in EBITDA in the first and second quarters compared with the year-earlier periods, despite higher power production in the first quarter, from 979 to 1,046 gigawatt-hours, and a 21% increase in the second quarter. In the first quarter, power production EBITDA was NOK 702 million compared with NOK 1,390 million, while revenue fell to NOK 929 million from NOK 1,623 million. The company attributed part of the year-over-year quarterly comparison in the first quarter to gains from asset sales in Uganda and Vietnam in the year-earlier quarter. Third-quarter results will be released on October 30, 2026 at 07:00 Central European Time, with the presentation and Q&A starting at 09:00.