American Express Raises Lower End of Adjusted Profit Forecast to $17.60 a Share

Key Facts

American Express raised the lower end of its 2026 adjusted profit forecast to $17.60 a share and kept the upper end at $17.90, while setting its reported profit forecast at $18.30 to $18.60. In its third-quarter results statement, the company said it was "raising its full-year earnings-per-share guidance" and was on track for another year of 10% revenue growth. The update came as quarterly revenue reached a record and cardholder spending remained strong. Reported earnings per share were $5.42, up 31% from a year earlier, while adjusted earnings were $4.68, up 13%. The adjusted measure excluded a gain from the sale of the company’s stake in Global Business Travel Group, after restructuring costs.

Revenue after interest expenses was $20.1 billion, up 9% year over year, compared with second-quarter revenue of $19.6 billion, which rose 10% from a year earlier. The company said third-quarter revenue growth came mainly from higher cardholder spending, increased net interest income supported by growth in card balances, and strong card fees. Billed business, which measures total spending on cards issued by the company, reached $454 billion, growing 8% after adjusting for the effect of foreign exchange rates. In the second quarter, cardholder spending rose 9% on a foreign-exchange-adjusted basis, its highest rate in three years, according to the company. Net income also grew to $3.712 billion from $2.902 billion a year earlier, an increase of 28%.

Travel and entertainment were among the main drivers of spending, rising 10% in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier. Airline spending increased 13%, while restaurant spending rose 9%, Reuters reported. The chief financial officer attributed part of the growth in the airline category to higher average ticket values and airfares, saying, "There is an effect from average ticket value and increases in airfares." Reuters linked higher ticket prices to fuel costs and oil-flow disruptions associated with the conflict in the Middle East. This reflects the varied reasons for higher travel spending, including card usage and prices, according to the company’s explanation and the report’s observations.

The Associated Press reported that the average American Express customer spent $6,735 during the quarter, or $2,245 a month, up 5% from the same period a year earlier. That coincided with a year-over-year increase of more than $400 million in net card fees. The company had raised the annual fee for its Platinum card from $695 to $895 after updating the card and adding new benefits. The agency said most customers who moved to the higher-fee card decided to keep it. Card fees provide an additional source of revenue alongside spending and interest income, and the company listed them among the drivers of quarterly revenue growth.

Company data showed improvement in credit-loss indicators compared with a year earlier. Credit-loss provisions were $1.0 billion in the third quarter, versus $1.3 billion a year earlier. The net write-off rate fell to 1.8% from 1.9% in the comparable period. Separately, the Associated Press reported that the company cut 5% of its workforce, or about 4,000 employees, in the previous quarter, saying the move was aimed at improving efficiency. The third-quarter results included restructuring costs, which were also taken into account in calculating adjusted profit.

Despite raising its forecast, American Express shares fell 1.73% to $319.53 in premarket trading on October 23, compared with a close of $325.17 on October 22. Reuters said a continued decline would make this the ninth time in 11 quarters that the stock had fallen despite results beating expectations. Analysts’ average estimate for adjusted profit in 2026 was about $17.63 a share, while the midpoint of the company’s new range exceeded that level. Investors were invited to a call to discuss the third-quarter results at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on October 23. The company reaffirmed in its annual guidance that it remained on track to deliver 10% revenue growth in 2026.