EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•23 October 2026•
5 min read

Brent Hits $114.72, Highest Since May 4, Amid Supply Fears

Key Facts

1Brent reached $114.72 a barrel, its highest level since May 4.
2Brent rose $3.51, or 3.2%, to $112.33 in the October 22 session.
3Brent was heading for a third weekly gain of about 4%, while West Texas Intermediate was expected to fall 0.3%.
4Middle East exports were about 17 million barrels per day in the previous week, compared with an average of 18 million before the Iran war.

Brent futures reached $114.72 a barrel on October 23, the highest since May 4, before rising $1.14, or 1%, to $114.31 by 1006 GMT, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. The move followed gains in Thursday's session, when the contracts rose $3.51, or 3.2%, to $112.33 at 1705 GMT, according to Reuters via Euronext. Thursday's rise pushed Brent into technically overbought territory for the third time in a week. The crude was heading on Friday morning for its third consecutive weekly gain, of about 4%. By contrast, West Texas Intermediate was on track to end the week down 0.3%, according to Reuters.

Reuters linked oil's rise to Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, which raised concerns about further disruption to energy supplies from a major export region. The agency reported that Saudi Aramco asked employees to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran on Thursday as fighting intensified between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis based in Yemen. The developments kept supply risks at the forefront of market moves, as investors focused on the potential for the attacks to have a wider impact on oil flows. A UBS analyst said the market remained concerned about possible escalation, and that disrupted oil flows and higher freight rates had left the market undersupplied. He added that escalation in a worst-case scenario could lead to renewed supply disruptions.

Regional export estimates offer another perspective on the supply picture. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated Middle East crude exports at about 17 million barrels per day in the week before Thursday's report. The region's exports averaged about 18 million barrels per day in the 12 months before the Iran war began, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. A PVM analyst said reports that Middle East crude exports had exceeded pre-conflict levels did not erase the impact of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and its oil infrastructure also offset the effect of higher exports, leaving risks tied to what actually reaches the market.

In Libya, a valve on a pipeline carrying oil from the Hamada and Zallah fields to the Zawiya port was shut, reducing output at the two fields, according to the head of the National Oil Corporation, who spoke to Reuters on Thursday. On shipping, Iran said 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, according to an Associated Press report. The report said the agency could not independently verify the claim. The Associated Press cited Lloyd's List Intelligence as saying tanker operators continued moving oil through the strait despite the attacks. The number of attacks on ships in October reached 28, the highest since the war began, while cargo traffic had returned close to pre-war levels at a higher cost, according to the report.

Alternative oil transport routes provide part of the backdrop to Saudi supplies: Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said the East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, had increased its capacity from 2 million barrels per day to 7 million. Meanwhile, International Energy Agency data showed global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels per day month on month to 102.3 million in September, driven by Gulf producers. The agency expects average annual supply to fall by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026 before rising by 7.7 million in 2027. Observed global oil inventories also fell by 10 million barrels in September. At the end of the month, inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February, according to the agency's report.

Demand forecasts set a different ceiling from the immediate risks driving prices. The International Energy Agency forecast global oil demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels per day year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, and decline by 2.6 million barrels per day on average for the year. The report estimated that diesel would account for 25% of the projected decline in demand in 2026. In a separate estimate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast the spot price of Brent would average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from the previous month's forecast. The agency expects the average price to fall to $84 in 2027.

On the production side, 7 oil-exporting countries in the OPEC+ subgroup agreed to keep output steady in November, according to the Associated Press. The countries set their next meeting for November 1 to review market conditions. An XS.com analyst said the estimated supply risk premium depended on the scale of actual disruption and the time needed to restore operations. He added that continued attacks and delayed deliveries gave higher prices a stronger basis. Monitoring oil flows and the return of operations remains central to assessing the size of the risk premium the market is prepared to pay, the analyst said.