Yara operating earnings fall to $675 million, miss analyst estimates
Key Facts
Yara International reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization excluding special items of $675 million in the third quarter of 2026, below the average analyst estimate. The same measure stood at $804 million in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the company's third-quarter report. The average forecast in the analyst consensus published by Yara on October 15, 2026, was $752 million, above the actual result. The median forecast was $745 million, according to the consensus, in which 13 analysts provided estimates for this measure. Earnings fell despite an increase in total revenue and other income to $4,478 million from $4,108 million in the third quarter of the previous year.
The weaker results extended to net profit, which fell to $199 million in the third quarter of 2026, according to the company's financial report. Net profit was $320 million in the corresponding quarter of 2025. The result also fell short of the average analyst estimate of $302 million in the consensus published before the announcement. The figures follow a second quarter in which Yara reported EBITDA excluding special items of $906 million. Those earnings had risen from $652 million in the second quarter of 2025, according to the company's results statement for that period, before third-quarter results recorded a year-on-year decline.
Yara said in its results statement that "higher gas prices and continued demand deferral weighed on margins and deliveries during the quarter." The weighted average gas cost for its European operations was $16.6 per million British thermal units in the third quarter of 2026. That compares with $12.7 per million British thermal units in the same period a year earlier, according to the quarterly report. In response to higher European gas prices, the company curtailed ammonia production by 150 thousand tonnes during the quarter. Production cuts also included 115 thousand tonnes of finished products, concentrated particularly at the Ferrara plant in Italy. On deliveries, Yara said European nitrate volumes recovered during the quarter, despite the broader pressures it described on margins and deliveries.
Yara cites energy diversification among its reasons for acquiring the Gulf Coast Ammonia plant, according to its third-quarter financial presentation. The company said the deal provides "a clear path to energy diversification and value-enhancing ammonia capacity expansion." It said the additional ammonia production capacity and energy diversification through the acquisition strengthen its competitiveness. When it agreed to buy the plant, Yara announced that the transaction was valued at $1.3 billion. That consideration raises its total expected capital expenditure for 2026 to $2.5 billion, according to the acquisition announcement. Alongside the deal, the company is targeting a $200 million improvement in underlying EBITDA by 2027. The improvement target rises to $350 million by 2030, according to the targets in the third-quarter results presentation.
Yara's updated estimates point to a year-on-year increase in gas costs of $450 million in the fourth quarter of 2026, based on forward prices and assuming unchanged consumption volumes. It also expects an increase of $445 million in the first quarter of 2027 compared with the same period a year earlier, on the same basis. These estimates follow the company's forecast in its second-quarter report of a $75 million year-on-year increase in gas costs in the third quarter of 2026. Its estimate at that time for the year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter was $115 million, before it was raised in the latest report. The earlier estimates were based on prevailing forward prices at the time, assuming unchanged gas purchasing volumes. The company's financial calendar set February 12, 2027, as the date for announcing its fourth-quarter 2026 results.