U.S. crude inventories fall 3.061 million barrels, exceeding forecasts as production declines
Key Facts
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.061 million barrels in the week ended October 16, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, exceeding the draw analysts had forecast. Inventories stood at 412.517 million barrels at the end of the week, according to the agency's weekly table. That compares with 415.577 million barrels in the previous week ended October 9, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve excluded from these commercial totals. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 820,000 barrels, making the reported draw larger than their estimates. The decline in total commercial inventories coincided with lower domestic production and imports, while Cushing and distillate stocks rose.
On the supply side, the Energy Information Administration lowered its weekly estimate of U.S. domestic production to 13,269 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 16. The previous week's estimate was 13,679 thousand barrels per day, representing a weekly decline of 410 thousand barrels per day. U.S. crude imports fell over the same period to 5,758 thousand barrels per day, compared with 6,049 thousand barrels per day a week earlier. Imports declined by 291 thousand barrels per day, according to the agency's weekly summary. Alongside the decline in incoming supplies, U.S. crude exports also contracted to 3,442 thousand barrels per day. Exports had stood at 4,570 thousand barrels per day in the previous week, marking a decline of 1,128 thousand barrels per day.
Within U.S. inventories, crude stocks at Cushing rose to 27.594 million barrels in the week ended October 16, according to the Energy Information Administration's table. That compares with about 26.607 million barrels in the week ended October 9, a weekly increase of 0.987 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell to 205.310 million barrels at the end of the reporting week. Gasoline stocks had stood at 208.262 million barrels a week earlier, with a reported weekly draw of 2.952 million barrels. In contrast to gasoline, distillate fuel inventories increased to 104.286 million barrels over the same period. That compares with a previous level of 102.611 million barrels, while the reported weekly increase in the agency's table was 1.674 million barrels.
In refining activity, crude oil inputs to U.S. refineries increased to 16,649 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 16, according to the Energy Information Administration. Those inputs had stood at 16,615 thousand barrels per day in the previous week, an increase of 34 thousand barrels per day. Refinery utilization was 93.4% during the reporting week, compared with 93.5% in the week ended October 9. Over the four weeks ended October 16, U.S. petroleum products supplied averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, according to the agency's weekly summary. That average rose 3.2% from the corresponding period a year earlier, a measure covering petroleum products supplied over a longer period than weekly inventory movements.
The U.S. developments come as the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on shipping agents based in Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. The department said in its statement that these agents "directly support the operations of Iran's shadow fleet." In its global oil market estimates, the Energy Information Administration forecast that restrictions on Middle Eastern oil flows would persist through the fourth quarter of 2026. The agency estimated that these restrictions would result in production shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels per day during that quarter. In its October outlook, the agency forecast that Brent spot prices would average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the same year.
In the market, West Texas Intermediate crude ended the session on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, at $97.15 per barrel, according to Reuters. The crude settled down 67 cents, or 0.7%, despite the draw in U.S. inventories exceeding analysts' expectations. For upcoming releases, the Energy Information Administration designates Wednesday as the usual publication day for its weekly petroleum inventories report. The report is usually released at 10:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern time, according to the agency's published release schedule. On the monetary policy calendar, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee holds its scheduled October 2026 meeting on 27 and 28, according to the U.S. central bank's official calendar.