U.S. crude inventories fall 3.1 million barrels, exceeding expected draw

Key Facts

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended October 16, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a larger draw than analysts had expected. Inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 412.5 million barrels, remaining 3% below the five-year average. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 820,000 barrels over the same period. The draw extended to total commercial inventories of oil and petroleum products, which fell by 8.5 million barrels during the week, according to the EIA's official summary. The decline in U.S. inventories coincided with risks to Middle Eastern supplies, as the Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks that included Saudi oil facilities, according to Reuters.

In fuel markets, U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 3.0 million barrels, according to rounded figures in the EIA's weekly report. They reached 205.3 million barrels on October 16, compared with 208.3 million barrels in the week ended October 9. Distillate inventories moved in the opposite direction, posting a rounded weekly increase of 1.7 million barrels. Those stocks stood at 104.3 million barrels, against 102.6 million barrels the previous week, diverging from the draws in crude and gasoline. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was 93.4% during the reporting week, according to Investing.com.

On the domestic supply side, U.S. crude production fell by 410 thousand barrels per day during the week, according to the EIA. Production stood at 13.269 million barrels per day, compared with 13.679 million barrels per day the previous week. Meanwhile, U.S. net crude imports, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose by 837 thousand barrels per day. Net imports reached 2.316 million barrels per day, against 1.479 million barrels per day a week earlier. Within the United States, crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 987 thousand barrels in the week ended October 16, according to Investing.com, moving in the opposite direction to the nationwide decline in commercial inventories.

In the Middle East, the attacks claimed by the Houthis included a Saudi Aramco site in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, according to Reuters. The risks extended to shipping, as Kpler said "at least 18 attacks on ships have been recorded over the past two weeks," according to the agency's account of its October 19 statement. On the diplomatic front, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said during a meeting with Pakistan's army chief that any negotiations first required the lifting of U.S. pressure, threats and sanctions, according to a report published by Investing.com on October 21. Pezeshkian demanded that Washington "lift the pressure, threats and sanctions" before negotiations. In the October 21 session, West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $97.15 a barrel, down 67 cents, or 0.7%, according to Reuters.

The EIA forecast in its October report that Brent spot prices would average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. That represents an increase of $14 a barrel from its September forecast, a revision that puts expected crude prices at a higher level for the remainder of the year. The agency linked additional upward pressure on crude to what it described as "extremely tight diesel markets." Its forecast assumes continued restrictions on oil flows from the Middle East during the fourth quarter of 2026. For monitoring U.S. inventories, the EIA's weekly report is normally released on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern time, except for holiday-related adjustments.