Waste Connections raises 2026 revenue outlook to $10.09 billion, beats estimates

Key Facts

Waste Connections raised its 2026 revenue forecast to about $10.09 billion, according to its third-quarter earnings statement released on October 21, as revenue and earnings per share beat analysts' estimates. The waste services and resource recovery company reported quarterly revenue of $2.638 billion for the third quarter of the year. That exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of $2.61 billion, according to Investing.com. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.58 for the same period, according to the company's statement published via Business Wire. Investing.com compared that result with an analyst estimate of $1.52 per share, putting both revenue and earnings above expectations.

Quarterly revenue rose from $2.458 billion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the company's earnings statement for the prior year. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization totaled $895.8 million in the third quarter of 2026. That compared with $830.3 million in the same period a year earlier. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 34.0% of revenue, compared with 33.8% in the third quarter of 2025, with higher earnings accompanied by an improvement in the margin. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose from $1.44 in the third quarter of the prior year, alongside increases in revenue and adjusted operating earnings.

The results follow a second quarter in which Waste Connections generated revenue of $2.562 billion, up 6.4% from a year earlier, according to its statement at the time. The adjusted EBITDA margin in that quarter was 32.8%, before improving in the third quarter. The company originally set its 2026 revenue forecast at between $9.90 billion and $9.95 billion. It then raised that range in its July update to between $10.02 billion and $10.05 billion, before the latest increase announced with the most recent results. For comparison with its previous annual business volume, the company's full-year 2025 revenue was $9.467 billion, according to its earnings statement for that year.

In its operating details, the company said solid waste unit volumes improved sequentially by 70 basis points in the third quarter, led by landfill activity. Waste Connections' operations include the collection, transfer and disposal of non-hazardous waste, including transport by rail, according to the company's description of its activities. It also operates in resource recovery, particularly through recycling and renewable fuel production, alongside waste disposal services. In its expansion through acquisitions, the company closed deals representing approximately $130 million in annual revenue from the start of 2026 through the earnings announcement. Alongside those deals, it said in the earnings statement that spending on share repurchases totaled "more than $1 billion" since the start of the year.

In a separate decision on cash dividends, Waste Connections' board approved a 10.0% increase in the quarterly dividend to shareholders, according to the dividend statement published via Business Wire. The new quarterly dividend is US$0.385 per share, under the decision announced in October 2026. The chief executive linked the decision to strong operating performance, cash flow and the balance sheet, according to the company's statement on the increase. In trading, WCN shares closed at $168.28 in the October 21, 2026 session, according to EL7 data. That close preceded the third-quarter earnings announcement, which was scheduled for after the market closed that day.

For the remainder of the year, Waste Connections expects adjusted EBITDA of about $3.345 billion for 2026, according to its annual outlook update. It also set its full-year adjusted free cash flow forecast at between $1.40 billion and $1.45 billion. Those forecasts cover the full year, while the reported quarterly results cover the period ending with the third quarter. The new cash dividend will be paid to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 5, 2026, under the terms announced by the board. The company set November 19, 2026 as the payment date for the quarterly dividend.