USDA raises corn yield to 181.2 bushels, forecasts higher stocks
Key Facts
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its corn yield forecast for the 2026 crop to 181.2 bushels per acre in its agricultural supply and demand report released on October 9, 2026, increasing projected production and available stocks for the 2026/27 season. The yield estimate was 2.7 bushels above the September forecast, underpinning the department's upward revision to the U.S. crop estimate. According to the report, projected total corn production rose by 234 million bushels from the previous estimate to about 16.0 billion bushels for the year's crop. The department left the area harvested for corn grain unchanged at 88.5 million acres, with the expected production increase coming from higher yields on unchanged acreage. The crop revision was accompanied by an increase in estimated beginning stocks, expanding projected supply by more than the department's increase in corn use during the season.
In its U.S. corn balance sheet for the 2026/27 season, the department raised beginning stocks by 173 million bushels, citing the September Grain Stocks report. It also raised estimated total use by 125 million bushels to about 16.3 billion bushels, alongside revisions to foreign trade forecasts. These included a 25 million bushel increase in projected U.S. exports to 3.3 billion bushels, which the department attributed to higher available supplies. Growth in use remained below supply growth, however, and the department said in its report: "With supply rising more than use, ending stocks increase by 282 million bushels." Estimated U.S. corn ending stocks consequently reached 1,849 million bushels, compared with 1,567 million bushels projected in the September report for the same season. Globally, the department raised its corn ending stocks forecast by 8.3 million tonnes to 280.4 million tonnes, attributing the increase mainly to higher U.S. stocks. Foreign trade revisions for the season also included an increase in projected Egyptian corn imports, as part of a broader revision to coarse grain flows outside the United States.
For soybeans, the USDA raised its yield forecast for the 2026 crop to 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from its September estimate. Higher yields lifted projected crop output, with the department raising its soybean production estimate to about 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million bushels from its previous forecast. The report linked the increase to higher yields, saying: "Soybean production is projected at 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million on higher yields." On use during the 2026/27 season, the department raised its soybean export forecast by 10 million bushels while leaving its crush estimate unchanged. Under the revised balance sheet combining production, export and crush forecasts, projected soybean ending stocks rose by 5 million bushels to 315 million bushels at the end of the season.
On season-average prices received by U.S. farmers, the department cut its projected corn price for the 2026/27 season by $0.10 per bushel to $4.70 in the October report. It left the projected average soybean price received by farmers at $12.00 per bushel for the same season, unchanged from September despite the higher crop production estimate. Coinciding with the report's release on October 9, corn futures at CME Group recorded a daily volume record of 1,206,376 contracts. Investing cited the group's announcement of the figure as its highest daily trading volume for corn futures. The USDA is scheduled to release its next agricultural supply and demand report on November 10, 2026, according to the department's published release schedule.