U.S. natural gas inventories rise 77 billion cubic feet, below traders' expectations
Key Facts
U.S. working natural gas in storage rose by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 16, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report. Total inventories reached 3,644 billion cubic feet as gas continued to accumulate ahead of the start of the heating season in November. Inventories stood at 3,567 billion cubic feet in the previous week ended October 9, according to official EIA figures. The weekly injection fell short of traders' expectations of around 80 billion cubic feet, according to FXEmpire. Inventories remained 152 billion cubic feet below their level in the same period last year. However, they exceeded the five-year average by 35 billion cubic feet, and total working gas in storage remained within its historical range for those years, according to the EIA.
Regionally, Midwest inventories rose to 1,065 billion cubic feet at the end of the reporting week, according to the EIA. That compared with 1,037 billion cubic feet the previous week, putting the region's weekly increase at 28 billion cubic feet. In the South Central region, total working gas in storage reached 1,125 billion cubic feet, according to the same report. However, the region's inventories were 10.0% below their year-earlier level, recording an annual deficit alongside the nationwide shortfall. South Central inventories were also 3.4% below the five-year average, unlike total U.S. inventories, which remained above their historical average.
The inventory reading coincided with a shift in weather forecasts toward warmer conditions in the Midwest through early November, according to FXEmpire's analysis. In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast U.S. inventories would reach 3,850 billion cubic feet by the end of October 2026. That level would put inventories 2% above the five-year average at the start of the heating season in November, according to the agency's forecast. The EIA does not set the end of October as a fixed cutoff for continued gas injections into storage facilities, linking the continuation of injections to market and weather conditions. It said in its outlook that inventories could continue to rise until mid-November, leaving the timing of the end of gas accumulation dependent on those conditions.
In its assessment of the supply-demand balance, the EIA expects U.S. production to grow to meet rising liquefied natural gas exports and domestic demand. Its October outlook estimated average U.S. dry gas production at 112.20 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. Forecast average production rises to 116.13 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, alongside expanding LNG exports in the agency's estimates. The outlook projected those exports would increase from an average of 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 to 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Describing the effect of inventories on its projected price trajectory, the EIA said: "Ample natural gas inventories, compared with the average of the previous five years, limit upward price pressures in our forecast."
Prolonged cold spells remain among the risks the EIA identified to its gas inventory forecasts during the heating season. The agency warned in its outlook that persistent cold weather could push inventory withdrawals above its estimates. The next date for tracking the weekly inventory change is October 29, 2026, when the agency releases its next natural gas storage report. That will be followed by the next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, 2026, according to the agency's published release schedule. The regular outlook includes forecasts for production, LNG exports and inventories, alongside an assessment of how ample gas supplies affect price pressures.