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Macro EconomyMedium•22 October 2026•
2 min read

South African inflation rises to 4.5% in September, below forecasts

Key Facts

1Annual inflation reached 4.5% in September 2026, compared with 4.4% in August and 4.3% in July.
2Annual inflation was below the market consensus forecast of 4.7%.
3The consumer price index rose 0.4% month on month in September, following a change of 0% in August.
4The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.25% at its September meeting.
5According to Nedbank's analysis, inflation is expected to exceed 5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.

South Africa's annual consumer price inflation rose to 4.5% in September 2026, increasing for a second consecutive month, according to the South African Government News Agency. The reading followed an annual rate of 4.4% in August, with inflation continuing to accelerate from the previous month. The rate stood at 4.3% in July, before the consecutive increases recorded in August and September. However, September inflation was below the market consensus forecast of 4.7%, according to Business Day, with expectations pointing to a larger increase in the annual rate. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.4% between August and September, according to figures reported by the government news agency. The increase followed an unchanged index in August, when the monthly change was 0%, with consumer prices rising in September alongside an acceleration in annual inflation.

The September reading follows the Monetary Policy Committee's decision to raise interest rates at its meeting that month, according to the South African Government News Agency. The committee approved an increase of 25 basis points, taking the interest rate to 7.25%. Committee members voted unanimously for the decision as the central bank seeks to bring inflation back to 3%. Assessing inflationary pressures, Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services, told Business Day: "Evidence of second-round inflationary pressures remains very limited." That assessment comes as annual consumer price inflation remains above the central bank's target, despite September's increase being smaller than the market had expected.

In the background, the central bank raised its inflation forecasts at the September meeting, according to Nedbank's economic research unit's analysis of that meeting. The analysis cited a forecast for headline inflation to exceed 5% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Those projections extend into the first quarter of 2027, when inflation is also expected to remain above that level. The path presented in Nedbank's analysis thus covers the end of this year and the start of next year, with inflation expected to remain above the central bank's target during both periods. Statistics South Africa is scheduled to publish October consumer price index data on 18 November 2026, according to the release calendar in its official bulletin.