London Stock Exchange Group raises 2026 income growth forecast to at least 8.0%
Key Facts
London Stock Exchange Group raised its forecast for organic income growth in 2026 to at least 8.0%, excluding recoveries and at constant currency, according to its business update issued on October 22. Management attributed the higher guidance to accelerating subscription growth and continued strength in its markets businesses. The group had targeted growth of between 7.0% and 7.5% when it reported first-half results, before raising its minimum target for the year. The new guidance included an improvement in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation margin of 100–120 basis points at constant currency, compared with around 100 basis points previously. The group also raised its minimum equity free cash flow target to £2.8 billion from £2.7 billion in its first-half guidance.
The upgrade followed income excluding recoveries of £2,407 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared with £2,219 million in the corresponding period of 2025. Reported growth was 8.5%, according to the group's quarterly statement. Organic growth at constant currency was 8.8%, beating the analyst consensus of 7.8% published ahead of the results. Actual income also exceeded the consensus estimate of £2,386 million. Organic growth accelerated from the first half of 2026, when it was 8.4%, excluding recoveries and at constant currency, while reported growth at that time was 6.9%.
The Markets division led the group's performance in the third quarter, posting organic growth at constant currency of 12.5%. FTSE Russell followed with growth of 10.2%, then Risk Intelligence at 9.8%, while Data & Analytics grew 5.2%, according to the same disclosure. In the subscription businesses, income reached £1,448 million, compared with £1,367 million in the third quarter of 2025. That represented reported growth of 5.9% and organic growth at constant currency of 6.6%, according to the accompanying results presentation. Chief Executive David Schwimmer had said when announcing first-half results: "Growth in our subscription businesses is accelerating, and our strategy to make the group's data available everywhere is making significant progress."
On artificial intelligence, the group said its products were now used by 95% of its top 200 clients. The number of users of the AI search service on its Workspace platform reached 47,000 by the end of September 2026. It said in its results presentation that the service had added 30,000 users since the announcement of first-half results. Management described AI as an opportunity whose contribution to revenue would increase over time. The group is also expanding the distribution of its licensed data and analytics within work environments powered by these technologies, including Gemini Enterprise through a Model Context Protocol connector.
These efforts include expanding its collaboration with Snowflake under a 5-year enterprise agreement announced by the group in September 2026. The agreement combines the group's financial data with cloud data and AI technologies, according to the companies' announcement. London Stock Exchange Group also announced a collaboration with Nvidia to accelerate analysis of historical trade data. The collaboration uses data processing and analytics tools, and the group said performance tests showed that years of its data could be analysed in seconds. It is also seeking to make financial content available within clients' work environments by expanding their access to licensed data and analytics through Gemini Enterprise.
Alongside the business update, the group announced an agreement to buy Octus, a provider of credit intelligence, data and workflow solutions, for $3.535 billion in cash. It will buy the company from funds managed by Permira and from Octus management, according to the deal announcement. London Stock Exchange Group said the acquisition would be financed through external debt. When confirming talks, it had said Octus's coverage and solutions were "highly complementary" to its existing fixed-income data and analytics businesses and private markets solutions. Reuters Breakingviews reported in its coverage dated October 14, 2026, that the group's shares fell 5% following the announcement of a possible purchase of Octus.
In another deal expanding its fixed-income business, Tradeweb announced an agreement to buy thZero for about $1.97 billion. Tradeweb said the consideration included $1.75 billion for the business and about $220 million for tax assets. London Stock Exchange Group described the acquisitions as accelerating its existing fixed-income strategy and complementing its current businesses. Tradeweb aims to complete the purchase of thZero in the first half of 2027. London Stock Exchange Group expects to complete the acquisition of Octus in the first half of the same year, subject to regulatory approval.