Iran's Revolutionary Guards say 4 ships targeted and set ablaze in northern Gulf, warn Washington
Key Facts
Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy said on Thursday, 22 October 2026, that it had targeted 4 ships that caught fire in the northern Gulf, according to a statement carried by Reuters, in a development affecting oil transport operations in the region. It said the ships were involved in oil transport operations it described as illegal, the characterization it used for those operations in announcing the attacks. It added that the ships were targeted simultaneously after being tracked on the Wednesday preceding the announcement. In another part of the statement, the Guards said 3 additional ships struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. The statement thus placed the ships it said had caught fire in the northern Gulf, while locating the mine strikes involving the additional ships to the west of the strait.
The Guards accompanied their announcement with a warning to the U.S. military that continued actions they described as provocations could lead to a broader response targeting its bases in the region. They warned, according to Reuters, of "a broader response against its regional bases," linking that possibility to the continuation of those provocations. On the diplomatic front, Abbas Araqchi said in remarks published by The National on Wednesday that Iran would not allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully before the United States accepted its conditions. In the same remarks, Araqchi confirmed that indirect negotiations with Washington were continuing, alongside Tehran's insistence on this condition for a full reopening. The negotiations are mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, according to Araqchi, who described the channel of communication with the U.S. side as indirect negotiations.
The waterway's importance to energy trade is underscored by the volume of flows that passed through it before these developments, with shipments of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 20 million barrels per day in 2025, according to an International Energy Agency fact sheet. That average includes both crude oil and petroleum products, according to the agency. In an assessment of oil transport costs, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said risks associated with tanker transits had raised shipping costs. It added that those risks had also increased the oil risk premium, alongside rising insurance costs. The EIA said higher insurance costs were putting upward pressure on the cost of crude delivered to refineries, making cargo coverage part of the costs associated with getting oil to its destination.
Oil prices had risen before Thursday's announcement, with The National reporting that Brent touched $111.99 a barrel on Tuesday, 20 October. The newspaper described that price as the highest since 20 May, a comparison that places Tuesday's move within the price trajectory preceding the Iranian announcement. In trading on Wednesday, 21 October, Brent futures for December delivery rose 0.6%, according to Investing.com. Those contracts stood at $109.52 a barrel by 19:25 GMT, according to the website's tracking of trading. The rise in December delivery contracts came the day before the Guards announced the attacks on the ships, after crude had touched the level reported by The National on Tuesday.
Against the supply backdrop, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated in its October report that Middle East crude production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million barrels per day in September. Shut-in production had averaged 5.8 million barrels per day in August, according to the EIA, putting the September estimate below the previous month's level. On the price outlook, the EIA forecast that spot Brent would average $105 a barrel during the final quarter of 2026. That represents an increase of $14 a barrel from the previous month's forecast, according to the October Short-Term Energy Outlook. These estimates cover the average spot price during the final quarter of the year, while the EIA set 10 November 2026 as the release date for its next report.