Middle East Oil Flows Top 24 Million Barrels a Day, Surpassing Pre-War Levels
Key Facts
Average Middle East oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes exceeded 24 million barrels a day in the week ended October 18, surpassing pre-war levels, according to Kpler data cited by the Wall Street Journal. The comparable pre-war level was 23.3 million barrels a day, with the recovery coming amid greater reliance on routes bypassing the strait and continued special arrangements for transporting cargoes. During September, about 40% of non-Iranian crude exports shipped from the Gulf took routes avoiding Hormuz, Asharq News reported, citing Kpler. Those routes accounted for about 17% before the war, reflecting a shift in the paths crude took out of the region during the conflict. Kpler attributed the recovery in flows to naval escorts, ship-to-ship transfers, operational adjustments and intermittent diplomatic breakthroughs.
The latest recovery followed a decline in crude volumes passing through Hormuz, with Reuters reporting on October 8 that Kpler analysts put the drop at 27% from the wartime peak recorded the previous week. Flows after that decline stood at at least 10.1 million barrels a day, according to Kpler's October 6 note. In a separate assessment published in early October, Kpler said clean petroleum product flows from the Gulf and along diverted routes remained about 50% below pre-war levels. That shortfall in product flows persisted alongside efforts to restore crude movements and adapt shipping operations to wartime conditions. Speaking at an energy conference in Riyadh on October 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the crude problem persisted but had largely been addressed. Wright described the situation by saying: "The crude problem we've talked about so much is still there, but it has mostly been addressed."
The recovery in flows coincided with a fresh attack on an Aramco-operated oil field in southeastern Saudi Arabia, the Associated Press reported, citing the Saudi Energy Ministry. The ministry said debris from an intercepted drone fell on the oil field, killing two people and injuring two others. That incident followed an attack on an Aramco administrative building in the Eastern Province, according to a ministry announcement carried by the agency. That attack caused a limited fire inside the administrative building on Tuesday. The Saudi Energy Ministry said no injuries were recorded in the administrative building incident, which preceded the latest attack on the oil field.
The human toll of the attacks extended to shipping, with The National citing International Maritime Organization data showing 116 attacks on ships through October 20. Maritime attacks have killed 24 people since the conflict began, according to the data reported by the newspaper. On supply transport capacity, Christopher Haines, global head of oil at Energy Aspects, warned that alternative shipping arrangements were nearing their limits. Haines told Axios: "We're approaching the limits of the volumes that can actually be moved out of the Middle East, even with these arrangements." His warning concerned the ability of those alternative operations to move additional volumes out of the region as they continue to be used to transport oil cargoes during the conflict.
In the market, Brent futures settled at $108.82 a barrel on October 21, up 0.03% on the day, according to Reuters. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast in its October report that restrictions on Middle East oil flows would persist. As part of that outlook, the agency projected an average Brent spot price of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. The agency said in its report: "We expect the Brent crude oil spot price to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026." Its forecast thus covers average prices during the final quarter of the year, with constraints on oil leaving the region remaining part of its assessment of supply conditions.