Gold falls 1.4% to $4,084.25 as inflation and interest rate concerns mount
Key Facts
Spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,084.25 an ounce at 13:11 GMT during trading on October 22, 2026, according to Reuters, pressured by inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates would remain high. The metal hit its lowest level since August 4 during the session, as prices came under renewed pressure after recovering in the previous session. The agency linked the decline to rising oil prices, which raised inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that interest rates would stay higher for longer. Describing the impact of rising crude prices, Reuters said "higher oil prices stoked inflation fears" in its explanation of the metal's decline. Brent futures had ended the October 21 session at $108.82 a barrel, according to a separate Reuters report. Brent rose 3 cents, or 0.03%, at that settlement, with gold's decline coming after oil closed higher.
Gold's decline followed a session in which it benefited from falling U.S. Treasury yields, according to Reuters' coverage of trading on October 21. In that session, U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.2% higher at $4,150 an ounce. The agency attributed the support for the metal at the time to lower yields, before oil and inflation concerns dominated its explanation of the following day's decline. Monetary policy expectations were already tilted toward an interest rate increase in December, according to a dated assessment published by Investing.com before the latest selloff. According to the website's report, updated on October 20, the probability of an increase stood at 94%, based on CME Group's FedWatch tool. That figure reflected market pricing for the December meeting as of that date, while Reuters linked the pressure during the October 22 session to expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer.
Gold's price weakness extends back to September, when the metal fell 8.5% on a monthly basis, according to the World Gold Council. But the price decline during the month coincided with continued inflows into gold exchange-traded funds globally. The council said these funds attracted inflows of $10 billion, equivalent to 67 tonnes, across different regions. By contrast, net managed-money positions on COMEX fell by $12 billion during the same September period, equivalent to 84 tonnes. The direction of fund flows thus differed from that of net managed-money positions in the futures market during the month of falling prices. Fund buying coincided with a reduction in those positions in a month when gold lost value, according to the council's figures on the metal's performance and investment activity.
On U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In its personal income and outlays release, the bureau said "the PCE price index for August increased 3.4% from the same month one year ago." This inflation backdrop comes ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee, scheduled for October 27 and 28, 2026, according to the central bank's official calendar. The meeting will be followed by the release of U.S. personal income and outlays data on October 29, 2026, according to the date announced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The monetary policy meeting and the income and outlays release thus follow in succession at the end of October, after a session of gold losses that Reuters linked to inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates would remain high.