Brent rises 2.8% to $111.84 as Middle East oil export restrictions persist
Key Facts
Brent crude futures rose 2.8% to $111.84 a barrel during Thursday trading, according to Investing.com, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects restrictions on Middle East oil exports to persist through the final quarter of the year. Futures reached that level at 12:47 GMT during the session on October 22, 2026. In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency forecast that spot Brent prices would average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. That marked an increase of $14 a barrel from the previous month's forecast. The higher price forecast comes as the agency expects production and exports to improve, with efforts continuing to overcome restrictions on oil movements in the region.
On the supply side, the International Energy Agency said in its October Oil Market Report that global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day in September from the previous month. Total supply reached 102.3 million barrels a day, led by Gulf producers. Measures cited by the U.S. Energy Information Administration to improve production and exports include the use of convoys, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers, while it expects export restrictions to remain in place through the final quarter. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026. The agency also expects the annual decline in demand to average 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026. Its forecasts thus combine a Gulf-led recovery in supply in September with a continued decline in global demand compared with the previous year.
Against the backdrop of diverging oil price forecasts, Citi maintained its forecast for Brent to average $70 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 in its September update, according to Reuters via Stockopedia. The bank also maintained its forecast for an average price of $65 a barrel in 2027, a different period from the final months of the current year. The bank's fourth-quarter forecast is below the U.S. Energy Information Administration's October forecast for the same period. In separate coverage in September, Investing.com cited Citi's assessment that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would leave the market with an oil surplus. The bank estimated that surplus, conditional on the strait reopening, at between "3 million and 4 million barrels a day," linking the scenario to the resumption of oil movements through the passage.
In the United States, Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended October 16, 2026. Inventories stood at 412.5 million barrels following the draw, according to the agency's weekly summary. These figures cover commercial crude oil inventories, excluding volumes held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The agency said commercial inventories were 3% below the five-year average, alongside the weekly decline. The agency is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, 2026.