BHP copper output falls 19%, misses forecasts in September quarter
Key Facts
BHP's copper production fell to 400.7 thousand tonnes in the quarter ended September 2026, down 19% from a year earlier, according to the operational review the company published on October 20, 2026. Output fell by the same percentage from the previous quarter, marking declines on both an annual and quarterly basis. Production missed the Visible Alpha consensus forecast of 423.6 thousand tonnes, according to Reuters' coverage of the disclosure. The decline included the Escondida mine, where September-quarter output stood at 252.6 thousand tonnes, down 23% year on year, according to the company. The Escondida figure represents 100% of the mine's production, as defined in the operational review.
The company attributed the decline in copper output to a combination of planned work and temporary disruptions affecting its operations during the quarter. Planned factors included lower ore grades and scheduled maintenance, according to its statement. It added that operations were also affected by severe weather in Chile, safety-related stoppages and a conveyor failure at the Carrapateena mine. At its South Australia copper operations, September-quarter output totalled 60.7 thousand tonnes, down 16% from a year earlier, according to the review. The company said it had replaced the Carrapateena conveyor and gradually restarted it following the failure. Describing the conveyor's operational status, it confirmed that it was back operating "at full capacity".
The quarterly performance follows a fiscal year in which the company said it produced about 2 million tonnes of copper, according to its previous review for the year ended June 2026. That was the second consecutive year in which annual output approached that level, according to its July announcement. When announcing annual results in August, BHP said copper had contributed "more than half of our underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation" for the first time. It added that the division generated substantial free cash flow, highlighting its weight in the group's results ahead of the latest quarterly update. In the September quarter, the company's average realised copper price rose to $7.01 per pound, according to the operational review. The realised price increased 53% year on year, compared with an average of $4.59 per pound in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, as higher prices coincided with lower production volumes.
BHP's iron ore production totalled 66.5 million tonnes in the September quarter, according to the operational review. That volume rose 4% from a year earlier but fell 2% from the previous quarter, after the company reported record annual iron ore output for the fiscal year ended June 2026. The average realised iron ore price for the quarter was $76.27 per wet tonne. The company compared that with an average of $84.04 per wet tonne in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The realised price thus fell 9% year on year, alongside growth in iron ore production volumes from the corresponding period.
Despite the decline in quarterly copper output and the operational disruptions, BHP kept its fiscal 2027 production guidance for the metal unchanged at a range of 1,650 to 1,800 thousand tonnes. In its update on the Jansen potash project, the company said the first stage was 87% complete in the October review. It maintained its target for production from that stage to begin in mid-2027, confirming that the project remained on schedule. Before that, the company had set January 27, 2027, as the publication date for its next operational review, according to its financial calendar. It also set February 16, 2027, as the date for its half-year results announcement.