BHP Copper Output Falls 19%, Misses Forecasts
Key Facts
BHP Group reported a 19% year-on-year decline in copper production in the quarter ended September 2026, hit by lower ore grades and operational disruptions in Chile and South Australia. The company said in its operational review released on 20 October 2026, two days ago, that output totalled 400.7 thousand tonnes in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Production also fell by the same percentage from the previous quarter. The volume missed the Visible Alpha consensus forecast of 423.6 thousand tonnes, according to Reuters' coverage of the disclosure. Nevertheless, the company maintained its fiscal-year copper production guidance at 1,650–1,800 thousand tonnes and confirmed that guidance remained unchanged across all operations.
At Escondida, copper production on a total-mine basis reached 252.6 thousand tonnes, down 23% year on year, according to the company's operational review. BHP attributed the decline to a planned reduction in copper grades in ore fed to the concentrators and maintenance work. A fatality at the site also prompted a temporary suspension of all mining activities. The company added that severe weather was among the factors affecting production during the period. At another copper operation, Spence, output fell 15% from the same period a year earlier to 47.4 thousand tonnes.
In South Australia, production from the group's copper operations fell 16% year on year to 60.7 thousand tonnes during the September quarter. The company attributed the decline primarily to an underground conveyor belt failure at Carrapateena. It said it had replaced the belt and ramped up operations during September, confirming that it was now "operating at full capacity". By contrast, copper production at Antamina rose 18% year on year to 40 thousand tonnes. BHP attributed the increase there to a planned rise in ore grades and strong operational performance.
Outside copper, the group's iron ore production totalled 66.5 million tonnes in the quarter, up 4% from the corresponding period a year earlier but down 2% from the previous quarter. BHP said its Western Australia iron ore operations achieved "first-quarter records at both the mines and the port". The performance came despite planned maintenance at those operations. On pricing, the average realised iron ore price fell 9% year on year to US$76.27 per wet metric tonne, according to Investing.com. Thermal coal production in New South Wales rose to 4.4 million tonnes. That volume represented an increase of 26% year on year and 6% from the previous quarter, according to company figures.
The decline in copper production volumes coincided with a 53% year-on-year rise in the group's average realised copper price, according to the operational review. The average reached US$7.01 per pound, compared with US$4.59 in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. In the previous fiscal year's results, underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation for the copper segment totalled US$18.2 billion, according to Investing.com's coverage. The segment had posted earnings on the same measure of $12.3 billion in fiscal 2025. In the market reaction to the latest operational disclosure, Reuters reported in its coverage dated 20 October that BHP shares fell as much as 2.4% to A$59.03 by 23:16 GMT.
On growth projects, BHP said the first stage of the Jansen potash project was 87% complete in its October update. It confirmed that the project remained on track to start production. It set mid-2027 as the target for first production from this stage. The group's next operational update is scheduled for 27 January 2027, according to its financial calendar. The company is due to announce its half-year results on 16 February 2027.