London Stock Exchange Group raises annual income growth forecast to at least 8.0%
Key Facts
London Stock Exchange Group raised its forecast for annual total income growth excluding recoveries to at least 8.0% in 2026 on an organic, constant-currency basis in a trading update issued on October 22. The group said the new guidance targets growth of "at least 8.0%", alongside higher cash flow expectations and a target range for margin expansion. Total income excluding recoveries reached 2,407 million pounds in the third quarter, compared with 2,219 million in the same period of 2025. That represents reported growth of 8.5%, while organic constant-currency growth was 8.8%. The group is targeting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin expansion of 100–120 basis points during the year at constant currency. It also raised its equity free cash flow forecast to "at least 2.8 billion pounds" in 2026, according to the statement.
By business, Markets posted income growth of 12.5% in the third quarter on an organic, constant-currency basis, according to the group's update. Growth in the subscription businesses accelerated to 6.6% over the same period and on the same basis. These businesses comprise Data & Analytics, FTSE Russell and Risk Intelligence, placing their acceleration alongside Markets growth in the group's quarterly results. Alongside the financial performance of these businesses, the group reported broader use of its artificial intelligence tools, with AI Search users reaching 47,000 by the end of the third quarter. The group also presented usage metrics for its Deep Research tools and connections to its servers, including user numbers, query volumes and data consumption during the period.
The group said in its third-quarter results presentation that 72% of the 50 largest clients in its Data & Analytics business were now connected to its Model Context Protocol servers. Data consumption through these servers rose to 5 times its level in the previous quarter, according to the presentation. Users of the Deep Research tool within the Workspace platform reached about 11,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2026. Queries submitted through the tool also rose 60% from the previous quarter. The increase in usage thus encompassed data consumption through the servers and queries through Deep Research, alongside the search tools' user base disclosed by the group with its quarterly results.
Alongside the guidance update, London Stock Exchange Group announced an agreement to buy Octus for $3.535 billion in cash from funds advised by Permira and the company's management, including founder Kent Collier. The group said in the acquisition announcement that the cash consideration would be funded through external debt. Octus currently has 750 clients and more than 40,000 individual users, including investment institutions, investment banks, law firms and consultancies. In another credit-sector deal, Tradeweb announced an agreement on October 19, 2026 to buy credit trading platform Trumid. Total consideration under that agreement is about $1.97 billion, according to Tradeweb's announcement. The price comprises $1.75 billion for the business and about $220 million for tax assets, with the two deals encompassing Octus's client base and Trumid's credit trading platform.
On Octus's expected performance, London Stock Exchange Group said the company's revenue would exceed $300 million in 2026, with strong double-digit growth. It also expects the company's adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin to reach about 40% in the same year. At the acquiring group level, the acquisition is expected to have a neutral impact on adjusted earnings per share in the first full year after completion. The group said the acquisition would be accretive to adjusted earnings per share after that year, according to the forecasts in the deal announcement. The Octus acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory approval.