U.S. Leading Economic Index Holds at 99.6 in September With No Recession Signal
Key Facts
The U.S. Leading Economic Index held steady at 99.6 points in September 2026, according to a Conference Board statement, with no recession signal under the organization's framework for interpreting the index. The reading, published on October 22, followed a monthly decline of 0.1% in August, halting the previous month's drop. Investing's calendar had indicated expectations for a 0.1% decline in September, while the result was unchanged. The index uses 2016 as its base year, with a value of 100 points. The statement included an upward revision to July data, lifting the index level relative to the level previously published for August. September's unchanged reading thus coincided with an upward revision to earlier data, alongside a halt in the monthly decline.
The Conference Board attributed September's positive contributions to the interest rate spread and average weekly manufacturing hours, which led the factors supporting the index during the month. A sharp decline in consumer expectations offset those gains, limiting the impact of improvements in the interest rate and manufacturing hours components on the overall reading. Stock prices made an additional negative contribution, although smaller than that of consumer expectations. Capital goods orders also weighed on the index, according to the organization's breakdown of the monthly result. Building permits added to the pressure, with negative contributions spread across consumer expectations, stocks, orders and permits, against support led by the interest rate spread and working hours.
Over a broader period, the leading index rose 0.6% between March and September 2026, according to the Conference Board's October release. That compared with a decline of 1.1% over the preceding six months, from September 2025 to March 2026. The index's trend thus shifted from decline to growth between the two periods, despite monthly gains stalling in September. The organization said its framework for interpreting the index showed "no recession signal" in the September report, the assessment accompanying the latest reading. In its economic outlook, the Conference Board forecasts real gross domestic product growth at an annual rate of 2.2% in 2026. It projects economic growth of about 2.0% in 2027, a slower pace than its estimate for the current year.
As a measure of current economic conditions, the Conference Board's Coincident Economic Index rose 0.3% in September 2026 to 115.3 points. The increase in this index, which measures current economic activity, came alongside an unchanged leading index in the same month. In the labor market, the U.S. Labor Department announced on October 22 that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims totaled 194,000. The figure covered the week ended October 17, a decline of 6,000 from the previous week. In equity markets, the Nasdaq Composite fell during the session on the day the index was released, according to the Associated Press. The index dropped 2.6% to close at 26,008.86 points. The decline came amid turmoil in artificial intelligence stocks, according to the news agency.
The upcoming economic calendar turns to the Conference Board's consumer confidence report on Tuesday, October 27, following the weakness in consumer expectations within the leading index's components. The organization scheduled the next report for release at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee begins its next monetary policy meeting, according to the Federal Reserve's calendar. The meeting runs October 27–28, following the release of September's leading index reading and ahead of its next monthly update. The leading index report covering October 2026 data is scheduled for release on Thursday, November 19, 2026, according to the Conference Board's technical notes.